Zeitenwende: The Bundeswehr’s Paradigm Shift
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, marked a turning point in German defense policy. After thirty years of military downsizing, the Bundeswehr found itself at an extremely low capability level just as a high-intensity war involving a great power was breaking out on Europe’s doorstep for the first time since 1945. Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s response was to embrace this “turning point” (Zeitenwende) by launching a major program to reequip Germany’s armed forces.
However, this change is part of a longer trend that started after the first wake-up call in 2014, following which Germany began tentatively to rebuild its military power. Under American pressure to share the defense burden, the new government that took office in 2021 included in its coalition agreement a national security strategy and an increase in defense spending. The war in Ukraine precipitated these decisions, combining the urgent need to provide arms with the more gradual pace of a long-term rearmament program.
In order to implement this rearmament plan, Olaf Scholz’s government set up a special fund (Sondervermögen) of €100 billion, financed by debt and dedicated entirely to the procurement of new materiel for the Bundeswehr. In addition to capability modernization, the Zeitenwende is founded on significant ambition within NATO. The North Atlantic Alliance remains the fundamental framework for the Bundeswehr, both on a conceptual and a doctrinal level. Finally, this multilateral integration is underpinned by a robust network of bilateral cooperations. The first and most important of these is undoubtedly with the United States; this relationship is carefully cultivated by Berlin despite the tensions caused by American frustrations with German shortcomings on defense issues.
All of these considerations bring us to an assessment of the implications of such a change for France, both in its partnership with Germany and at the European and transatlantic level.
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Zeitenwende: The Bundeswehr’s Paradigm Shift
Léo PÉRIA-PEIGNÉ
Research Fellow, Security Studies Center, Head of the Defense Research Unit, Ifri
Élie TENENBAUM
Director of Ifri’s Security Studies Center
Security Studies Center
Heir to a tradition dating back to the founding of Ifri, the Security Studies Center provides public and private decision-makers as well as the general public with the keys to understanding power relations and contemporary modes of conflict as well as those to come. Through its positioning at the juncture of politics and operations, the credibility of its civil-military team and the wide distribution of its publications in French and English, the Center for Security Studies constitutes in the French landscape of think tanks a unique center of research and influence on the national and international defense debate.
Observatory on Future Conflicts
The Observatory of Future Conflicts is a research program carried out by the French Institute of International Relations and the Foundation for Strategic Research on behalf of the three army headquarters aimed at studying developments in tensions and armaments at the horizon 2040 in a transversal perspective, taking into account the issues of each army.
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