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Germany in the Electoral Campaign to the Early Elections on February 23 - The Challenges of a high-risk Voting

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Ifri Editorial, January 23, 2025
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One month before the early Federal Elections in Germany, which will take place on February 23, 2025, after the "Traffic light coalition" imploded on November 6, 2024, the political landscape in Germany appears to be relatively stable despite the rise of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD).

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Berlin, Germany - January 8, 2025 - Banner at CDU headquarters on early Bundestag 2025 elections showing party leader and front-runner Friedrich Merz
Berlin, Germany - January 8, 2025 - Banner at CDU Headquarters on early Bundestag 2025 Elections Showing party leader and Front-Runner Friedrich Merz - © Achim Wagner
Shutterstock.com
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The new government that emerges from the elections will have to deal with rethinking the crisis-ridden German economic model, against a backdrop that is being disrupted by the election of Donald Trump in the US. What are the prospects for Europe and Franco-German relations?

Paul Maurice is Secretary General of The Study Committee on Franco-German Relations (Cerfa) at Ifri, where he focuses on German domestic policy, Franco-German relations within the European Union, and German foreign and security policy.


This publication is available in French (pdf): "L’Allemagne en campagne pour les élections anticipées du 23 février - Enjeux d’un scrutin à risque

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Paul MAURICE

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The Pariser Platz (Paris Square) on the east side of the Brandenburg Gate at Berlin, Germany
The Study Committee on Franco-German Relations (Cerfa)
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The Study Committee on Franco-German Relations (Cerfa) was created in 1954 by an inter-governmental agreement between the Federal Republic of Germany and France, in order to raise awareness of Germany in France and analyze Franco-German relations, including in their European and international dimensions. In its conferences and seminars, which bring together experts, political leaders, senior decision-makers and representatives of civil society from both countries, Cerfa develops the Franco-German debate and stimulates political proposals. It regularly publishes studies through two collections: Cerfa notes and studies as well as Franco-German visions.

Cerfa maintains close relations with the network of German foundations and think tanks. In addition to its research and debate activities, Cerfa promotes the emergence of a new Franco-German generation through original cooperation programs. This is how in 2021-2022, Cerfa led a program on multilateralism with the Konrad Adenauer Foundation in Paris. This program is aimed at young professionals from both countries interested in the issues of multilateralism in the context of their activities. It covered a wide range of themes relating to multilateralism, such as international trade, health, human rights and migration, non-proliferation and disarmament. Previously, Cerfa had participated in the Franco-German future dialogue, co-led with the DGAP from 2007 to 2020, and supported by the Robert Bosch Foundation and the Daniel Vernet group (formerly the Franco-German Reflection Group) which was founded in 2014 upon the initiative of the Genshagen Foundation.

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Under construction: Europe’s economic repositioning in a fragmented international order

Date de publication
03 June 2026
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„Under Destruction“– this was this year’s motto at the Munich Security Conference. A motto that applies both to security and economy in an increasingly fragile international system. In 2024, Mario Draghi’s report on the EU’s competitiveness rang the alarm bell:  Europe is slipping behind the US and China, European companies struggle with Brussels' bureaucracy, and the internal market is too fragmented. However, two years later only about 15 % of his recommendations were implemented: the wake-up call was not heard.

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Germany in the Shadow of the United States, Russia, and China – Systemic Paradigm Shifts

Date de publication
30 June 2026
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Since reunification, Germany has built its prosperity on an international order based on free trade, multilateralism, and geopolitical stability. This model relied on three relationships considered complementary: U.S. military protection, Russian energy supplies, and economic integration with China. For several decades, Berlin viewed these interdependencies as factors contributing to peace, growth, and security.

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France and EU Enlargement: From Strategic Hesitation to a Geopolitical Shift

Date de publication
11 June 2026
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Paris has come a long way in its approach to enlarging the European Union. However, French support remains fragile, due in part to a lack of public support.

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Reviving the German Economy: Balancing Economic, Social, and Defense Priorities

Date de publication
19 May 2026
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Germany is facing fundamental challenges to its economic and social model and is seeking a new course. The German post-war model was hugely successful, leading to economic strength and prosperity over many decades, but now it is steadily faltering. The previously latent fear of deindustrialization is becoming more concrete, particularly due to the weakening of a key sector: the automotive industry.

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Berlin, Germany - January 8, 2025 - Banner at CDU Headquarters on early Bundestag 2025 Elections Showing party leader and Front-Runner Friedrich Merz - © Achim Wagner
Shutterstock.com

How can this study be cited?

Paul MAURICE, « Germany in the Electoral Campaign to the Early Elections on February 23 - The Challenges of a high-risk Voting », Editorials, Ifri, 23 January 2025.
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