How to Make European e-SAF Production under RefuelEU Aviation Fly?
Three and a half years before the scheduled entry into force of the European regulation ReFuelEU Aviation (RFEUA), which requires aviation fuel suppliers at Union airports to offer a sustainable synthetic alternative (e-SAF), no sizeable commercial production unit (greater than 10,000 tons per year) is active within Europe yet, nor has it even passed the Final Investment Decision (FID). Is a major step in the European Union (EU) plans for decarbonizing air transport at risk of not happening, or at least being postponed for several years? Is Europe losing its bet to create a market for e-SAF? Under what conditions can this bet still be won? Could sovereignty and energy security preoccupations unlock necessary public support and help to overcome economic, financial, logistical or administrative obstacles?
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Key Takeaways
While biogenic sustainable aviation fuels have picked up, synthetic alternatives are nowhere near to be produced in Europe.
Airlines face the prospect of either large penalties or will trigger high imports, while customers will pay more and the market share of European airlines will shrink.
Postponing regulation altogether risks threatening the many good projects that are being developed and that must take FID in 2026.
Launching a limited baseload Made in EU e-fuels supply is a strategic priority. Adjustment to regulation should focus on maintaining a level playing field with non-EU competitors and using ETS allowances and payments as a facilitator.
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How to Make European e-SAF Production under RefuelEU Aviation Fly?
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Ifri's Energy and Climate Center carries out activities and research on the geopolitical and geoeconomic issues of energy transitions such as energy security, competitiveness, control of value chains, and acceptability. Specialized in the study of European energy/climate policies as well as energy markets in Europe and around the world, its work also focuses on the energy and climate strategies of major powers such as the United States, China or India. It offers recognized expertise, enriched by international collaborations and events, particularly in Paris and Brussels.
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