North Africa and Middle East
Analysis of changing dynamics in the North Africa/Middle East region, against a backdrop of increasing conflicts and their political, economic and energy consequences.
Related Subjects
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The leaders of Iran nurture regional ambitions, and are conscious of the limits of their country’s power.
New and Emerging LNG Markets: The Demand Shock
Over the past decade, an increasing number of emerging markets has joined the liquefied natural gas (LNG) import club.
America Is More Than Trump. Europe Should Defend the Iran Deal without Burning Bridges to the US
US President Donald Trump’s decision to withdraw from the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), will severely degrade regional and global security. His decision has increased the risk of war and a nuclear arms race in the Middle East and beyond.
The Gulf Monarchies' Armed Forces at the Crossroads
Something is happening with the military forces of the Arab monarchies in the Gulf.
Macron, Diplomat: A New French Foreign Policy?
How can we define Emmanuel Macron’s foreign policy since he took office? After Nicolas Sarkozy’s brazen style of “gutsy diplomacy” and François Hollande’s “normal diplomacy”, the eighth president of the Fifth Republic seems to have opted for an agile classicism. In substance, he makes no claim to any radical break with the past, but sees his approach as being in line with historical tradition.
"Playing with Molecules": The Italian Approach to Libya
This paper aims to analyse the many ways in which Italy is trying to play with the many Libyan “molecules”, the different parties of a fragmented and collapsing country, and the possible implications of the strategy adopted by the Gentiloni government and its Minister of Interior, Marco Minniti, towards the country and the migratory crisis.
European Union Partnerships with African Countries on Migration: A Common Issue with Conflicting Interests
Since 2015 and the refugee crisis, the dialogue between the European Union (EU) and African countries on migration issues has assumed a new intensity.
General El-Sisi’s Egypt: Reaction and Revolutionary Aspirations
The Egyptian presidential election of spring 2018 will, in all likelihood, result in Abdel Fattah El-Sisi maintaining power, given the tight control over the opposition.
China in the Mediterranean: An Emerging Presence
The Chinese presence in the Mediterranean is raising new questions among the diplomatic services of the Maghreb countries, as well as those of southern Europe. Indeed, over the past five years, China has been translating its national priorities with increasing activism in the Mediterranean.
Saving Transatlantic Cooperation and the Iran Nuclear Deal. A View from Europe and the United States
Transatlantic differences over the future of the Iran nuclear deal – or the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) of July 2015 – are damaging a nuclear accord that all parties, except the United States, see as delivering on its purpose. They also increase the risk of Washington and European capitals working at cross-purposes vis-à-vis Iran and broader regional policies. To avoid such a scenario, the E3 (France, Germany, United Kingdom)/European Union (EU) and the United States need to set up new channels of communication to avoid a transatlantic rift, to attempt – if at all possible – to preserve the Iran deal, and to secure its benefits for regional and global security.
Iraq after Daesh
Going beyond the numerous claims of rupture, is Trump overturning the international order and the place occupied in it by the United States?
Trump, un an après. Un monde à l'état de nature ?
In the week following Trump’s election, Ifri published a study to identify the likely changes in U.S. foreign policy. From the outset, this election appeared as a change in the U.S.’ trajectory, with consequences on the power relations and functioning of the international system.
Nomadic Diplomacy: The Case of Yemen
Along with Syria and Libya, Yemen is the third Arab country experiencing civil/international war, with the same consequences for diplomatic activity: because of the closure of embassies in situ and the security situation, states have had to develop a “nomadic” policy of contacts in third countries with their counterparts, according to their places of exile, which the following article designates in terms of Yemen as a test in “map-making.”
The Arctic: a Strategic Exploration
Two strategic regions are at the focus of this back-to-school issue of Politique étrangère.
Three Generations of Jihadism in Iraqi Kurdistan
The aim of this report is to describe and explain how structural changes have affected three generations of jihadists in Iraqi Kurdistan: The Jihadi generation of the 1980s, that of Ansar al-Islam in the 2000s and that of the Kurds of Islamic State (ISIS) or Daesh in the 2010s.
A Victory to End All Victory: Iraq after the Islamic State
The offensive on Mosul against Islamic State crystallises all of the political, social and security issues which determine the future of the Iraqi state.
Foreign Policy Challenges for the Next French President
France’s current presidential campaign has created an unprecedented situation fuelled by revelations and a total absence of restraint, but it has not truly taken account of the disruptions of the last year: Brexit, the attempted coup in Turkey, the election of Donald Trump, the recapturing of Aleppo by Bashar al-Assad, Xi Jinping’s declarations about “economic globalization”, or the behavior of North Korea. The debate, or rather its absence, can be looked at in two ways.
Trade without Religion between Turkey and Syria
A saying claims that trade has no religion; it even adapts to a war situation, as demonstrated by the real-time reorganisation of trade channels at the Turkish-Syrian border.
The Future Middle East Strategic Balance. Conventional and Unconventional Sources of Instability
This paper seeks to analyze the future Middle Eastern military balance of power, in a time horizon of five to ten years.
War and Democratic Decision Making: How do Democracies Argue and Decide Whether or Not to Intervene in Distant Wars?
What is the proper place and forum for decisions about war and peace in a democracy? There is surprisingly little consensus on this matter, not in theory and not in practice. While in Iraq, Libya and Syria, all Western actions have ended in failure, it seems necessary to analyze the place and importance of this aspect of the democratic decision making.
Toward Transatlantic Cooperation in Meeting the Iranian Nuclear Challenge
Ifri, a foundation recognized as being of public utility, relies largely on private donors – companies and individuals – to guarantee its sustainability and intellectual independence. Through their funding, donors help maintain the Institute's position among the world's leading think tanks. By benefiting from an internationally recognized network and expertise, donors refine their understanding of geopolitical risk and its consequences on global politics and the economy. In 2026, Ifri partners with over 90 French and international companies and organizations.
Governing the Urban Transition in Africa
Sub-Saharan Africa's cities are experiencing the fastest growth rates in the world. By 2050, most of the countries in the region will have made an urban transition, meaning that more than 50% of their population will live in urban areas. Urban growth is often presented as a cornerstone of the continent's socio-economic development.
To assess these challenges Ifri’s Sub-Saharan Africa Center is launching, in May 2022, a research program looking into the major socio-economic and geopolitical challenges of urban dynamics on the continent.
The program deals with urban development in Africa through a sectoral and cross-cutting approach based on three key sectors:
- Land issues are the foundation of urban life. Each urban project triggers changes within the relationship between land and its inhabitants.
- Urban infrastructure is often presented as a solution to the challenges of demographic growth in cities. However, the lack of infrastructure and its financing remains a concern for specialists.
- The mobility of goods, people and financial flows is characteristic of urban life and drives the multiple links between cities and the countryside. Analyzing the urban-rural continuum is at the heart of this program's objectives.
Research will be conducted at the macro (continental), meso (country), and micro (city/neighborhood) levels and will be promoted through events and publications.
Turkey/Middle East Program
Ifri's Turkey/Middle East Program aims to provide expertise on the trends and developments in politics, societies and economies across the region.
The programme has the following objectives:
- Proposing a new approach towards the MENA region through an analysis of local, regional, and international dynamics with the potential to guide and influence new policies.
- Highlighting the role of foreign powers which have traditionally been present in the region and analyzing the new role taken on by emerging countries ;
- Anticipating new directions and outlooks in each country.
- Interpreting risks and potentials and putting forward new templates for analysis.
The programme has built a dense network of researchers and experts who provide expertise on the MENA region and working together on a range of crosscutting themes.