Strait of Hormuz: The War of Nerves
In the event of a major conflict, Iran could decide to close the Strait of Hormuz, which would cause a global energy crisis.
Lebanon: Out With The Old, In With The What?
Dorothée Schmid, head of the Middle East program participated in a webinar organized by Italian think tank ISPI and the Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center to talk about the current Lebanese government, French and American foreign policy in the country.
RAMSES 2021. At the Edge?
RAMSES 2021. At the Edge?, written by Ifri's research team and external experts, offers an in-depth and up-to-date analysis of geopolitics in today’s world.
Les bases de la puissance. Enjeux géopolitiques et stratégiques des bases militaires avancées
Throughout history, great powers have relied upon forward military bases, either to support their interventions in areas of interest, to re-assure allies or to control a territory.
L’Iran et ses “proxys” au Moyen-Orient. Les défis de la guerre par procuration
If Iran is a key player in the Middle East, it is in no small part because of its extensive network of armed militia, which it uses as proxies.
The Middle East: The Economy in The Race for Power
Middle Eastern geopolitics is currently undergoing structural changes: the regional order is in transition in the aftermath of the Arab Spring that undermined authoritarian governance, and triggered the competition for power against a backdrop of American withdrawal.
The Gulf Economies and Energy Transition
The economies of the Persian Gulf are highly dependent on their petrol exports, particularly to Asia.
The Gulf: from Geopolitics to Plain Politics
The geopolitical shadow of the Gulf now extends far beyond the Middle East as a function the external dealings of Iran and the countries of the Arabian Peninsula.
Confettis d’empire ou points d’appui ? L’avenir de la stratégie française de présence et de souveraineté
France is one of the few nations in the world to benefit from a permanent global military presence. With more than 10,000 military personnel from all three services, deployed across the five continents and the three main oceanic basins, it benefits from the second largest network of prepositioned forces in the world.
RAMSES 2020. A World without a Compass?
RAMSES 2020. A World without a Compass?, written by Ifri's research team and external experts, offers an in-depth and up-to-date analysis of geopolitics in today’s world.
2019-2029: The World in 10 Years
The last four decades have witnessed the profound transformation of the very foundations of the international system: the globalization of trade, technical revolutions, the upheaval of the hierarchy of powers, the emergence of China, the explosion of the Middle-East, the mutation of conflicts and threats, climate concerns, etc.
The Middle East in 2029
The wars ravaging the Middle East are not destined to continue forever and the region is not condemned to being governed by autocrats. A transition to a more just order for the region’s populations is possible, but will take time. It is unlikely to happen by 2029. Progress will be gradual, pushed by civil society. New revolutions are possible, although it is not sure they will lead to greater democracy.
Quel avenir pour le djihadisme ? Al-Qaïda et Daech après le califat
Despite a relative weakening since 2017, the international jihadist movement should continue to pose a genuine threat over the next decade.
WPC 2018 - Statement by Thierry de Montbrial
Thierry de Montbrial makes a statement on the 11th edition of the World Policy Conference (WPC) held from October, 26-28, 2018, in Rabat, Morocco.
An interview led by John Andrews, contributing editor, The Economist.
The US Oil Embargo on Iran: A New Oil Shock?
The 14 July 2015 Vienna agreement on Iran’s nuclear activities (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action – JCPoA) was a game changer on the geopolitics in the Middle East and for the oil market. The oil sanctions were lifted and Iran increased significantly its production and exports. On 8 May 2018, President Trump announced that the United Stated (US) would withdraw from the agreement. Financial sanctions were reintroduced. From 5 November 2018 onwards, further sanctions will be re-imposed more specifically on petroleum related transactions, including the purchase of petroleum, petroleum products and petrochemical products. What could be the impact of this new embargo? Is there a risk of a new oil supply and price shock?
Understanding the Resilience of the Islamic Republic of Iran
The leaders of Iran nurture regional ambitions, and are conscious of the limits of their country’s power.
RAMSES 2019. The Clashes of the Future
RAMSES 2019. The Clashes of the Future, written by Ifri's research team and external experts, offers an in-depth and up-to-date analysis of global geopolitics.
New and Emerging LNG Markets: The Demand Shock
Over the past decade, an increasing number of emerging markets has joined the liquefied natural gas (LNG) import club.
Macron, Diplomat: A New French Foreign Policy?
How can we define Emmanuel Macron’s foreign policy since he took office? After Nicolas Sarkozy’s brazen style of “gutsy diplomacy” and François Hollande’s “normal diplomacy”, the eighth president of the Fifth Republic seems to have opted for an agile classicism. In substance, he makes no claim to any radical break with the past, but sees his approach as being in line with historical tradition.
A Second Wind for States?
With globalization weakening their borders and their sovereignty, are states now marginalized on the global stage?
Israel and Hezbollah: The New Strategic Equation
After the war between Israel and Hezbollah during the summer of 2006, a deterrence strategy was established between the two parties. Occasional subsequent crises have thereby been contained and have been prevented from escalating into extensive confrontations.
Persistence and Evolutions of the Rentier State Model in Gulf Countries
A general economic model of understanding Middle Eastern states was elaborated by political scientists around the 1980’s, based on the concept of rent as a factor of wealth around which the economic model as much as the governance of energy-rich countries was re-organized. The particular case of GCC’s countries as rentier state has been at the cornerstone of this concept since they own the most important share of energy resources in the world.
John Kerry in the Middle East: from Weak to Hopeful Diplomacy?
In 2013, Barak Obama and John Kerry managed, not without difficulty, to steer Israeli and Palestinian leaders back to peace negotiations. At the same time, Washington re-established dialogue with Tehran in talks aimed at finding a solution to the Iranian nuclear problem.
The Two-State Solution is Still Possible
Many Israelis and Palestinians contest the ‘two-state solution’.
Middle East Oil and Gas Producers: Soon to Be Back in the Lead?
The World Energy Outlook 2013 published by the IEA confirms that despite the rise of unconventional fuels in particular in the US, Middle East will by the mid-2020s retake its place as the world major oil and gas supplier, providing most of the increase in global supplies. Well, there are some big ifs.
Beyond the Arab awakening: Policies and Investments for Poverty Reduction and Food Security
This report aims to inform and stimulate the debate on key policy priorities for poverty reduction and food security in light of the Arab Awakening.
U.S. Foreign Policy and the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict: A View from Palestine
How will the US respond to the changing Palestinian and Arab paradigm?
Ifri, a foundation recognized as being of public utility, relies largely on private donors – companies and individuals – to guarantee its sustainability and intellectual independence. Through their funding, donors help maintain the Institute's position among the world's leading think tanks. By benefiting from an internationally recognized network and expertise, donors refine their understanding of geopolitical risk and its consequences on global politics and the economy. In 2026, Ifri partners with over 90 French and international companies and organizations.
