Quel avenir pour le djihadisme ? Al-Qaïda et Daech après le califat
Despite a relative weakening since 2017, the international jihadist movement should continue to pose a genuine threat over the next decade.
The Islamic state’s territorial grasp in Iraq and Syria has now receded under the assault of its various opponents. With the loss of its sanctuary, ISIS’ ability to plan and carry out terrorist attacks in Western countries has greatly diminished. Yet, the group is far from being defeated. More generally, the jihadist movement remains very active in the Levant and throughout the world. Since the 9/11 attacks, it has shown not only its resilience but also its capacity to regenerate and innovate. This report, which has a prospective aim, analyses the global and local trends that will shape jihadism in the years to come. It presents a general picture of the status of forces in the different fronts where the armed forces are operating and reviews their operating procedures.
This content is available in French: Quel avenir pour le djihadisme ? Al-Qaïda et Daech après le califat.
Marc HECKER
Executive Director of Ifri, Editor-in-Chief of Politique étrangère, and Research Fellow at the Security Studies Center, Ifri
Élie TENENBAUM
Director of Ifri’s Security Studies Center
Security Studies Center
Heir to a tradition dating back to the founding of Ifri, the Security Studies Center provides public and private decision-makers as well as the general public with the keys to understanding power relations and contemporary modes of conflict as well as those to come. Through its positioning at the juncture of politics and operations, the credibility of its civil-military team and the wide distribution of its publications in French and English, the Center for Security Studies constitutes in the French landscape of think tanks a unique center of research and influence on the national and international defense debate.
From Corsairs to Private Military Contractors. Nonmilitary Maritime Actors and the Historical Continuities of Naval Warfare
Since late 2023, several Houthi attacks on commercial shipping have involved privately contracted armed teams conducting defensive engagements and coordinating immediate response efforts, often in the relative absence of regular naval forces during the immediate hostilities at sea. These cases highlight a strategic tension that increasingly confronts modern navies. On the one hand, they are expected to conduct persistent, low-intensity maritime security tasks such as counterpiracy, maritime policing, and the protection of commercial shipping. On the other hand, they face renewed pressure to prepare for high-intensity conflict against peer and near-peer adversaries amid the return of great power competition.
Framework Nation: A European Challenge and French Ambition
First appearing in the early 2000s, the framework nation concept follows several distinct rationales, whether it refers to a country assuming the leadership of a military operation, directing a multinational capability project, or commanding a permanent force structure. In every case, the country that takes on this role fully intends to derive from it additional politico-military influence.
The Nuanced Relationship Between Public Opinion and Foreign Policy
Public sentiment is something decision-makers must contend with, especially in democratic states. However, the extent to which public opinion shapes foreign policy varies. Three Council of Councils experts in France, India, and Nigeria reflect on how public opinion does—and sometimes does not—affect foreign policy decisions.
Taking the Pulse: Enough with the Annual NATO Summits, Already?
Over the past ten years, NATO has held almost as many summits as it did during the entirety of the Cold War. Are they still useful, or is it time to stop holding annual meetings?