Quel avenir pour le djihadisme ? Al-Qaïda et Daech après le califat
Despite a relative weakening since 2017, the international jihadist movement should continue to pose a genuine threat over the next decade.
The Islamic state’s territorial grasp in Iraq and Syria has now receded under the assault of its various opponents. With the loss of its sanctuary, ISIS’ ability to plan and carry out terrorist attacks in Western countries has greatly diminished. Yet, the group is far from being defeated. More generally, the jihadist movement remains very active in the Levant and throughout the world. Since the 9/11 attacks, it has shown not only its resilience but also its capacity to regenerate and innovate. This report, which has a prospective aim, analyses the global and local trends that will shape jihadism in the years to come. It presents a general picture of the status of forces in the different fronts where the armed forces are operating and reviews their operating procedures.
This content is available in French: Quel avenir pour le djihadisme ? Al-Qaïda et Daech après le califat.
Author(s)
Marc HECKER
Deputy Director of Ifri, Editor-in-Chief of Politique étrangère, and Research Fellow at the Security Studies Center, Ifri
Élie TENENBAUM
Director of Ifri’s Security Studies Center
Related centers and programs
Discover our other research centers and programs
Security Studies Center
Heir to a tradition dating back to the founding of Ifri, the Security Studies Center provides public and private decision-makers as well as the general public with the keys to understanding power relations and contemporary modes of conflict as well as those to come. Through its positioning at the juncture of politics and operations, the credibility of its civil-military team and the wide distribution of its publications in French and English, the Center for Security Studies constitutes in the French landscape of think tanks a unique center of research and influence on the national and international defense debate.
Find out more
Discover all our analyses
Design, Destroy, Dominate. The Mass Drone Warfare as a Potential Military Revolution
The widespread use of drones observed in Ukraine—both in terms of the scale of the fleets deployed and their omnipresence in the operations of both belligerents—appears to meet the conditions of a genuine military revolution.
The Hunt for Economic Security: The Role of Navies in Deterring Threats to the Maritime Economy
The maritime domain is currently faced with a wide variety of threats, such as climate change, economic warfare, shadow fleet operations, protection of critical infrastructures, and illicit activities ranging from illegal fishing to piracy. Navies suffer from inherent limitations when deterring threats to the global maritime economy: their global presence and permanence limits their credibility in terms of deterrence, their focus usually set on immediate deterrence, implementing deterrence by punishment in and from the naval domain is difficult and costly.
A Fragile Consensus? The Pressure on the Norm Against Nuclear Testing
Apart from North Korea, no state has conducted explosive nuclear tests in the 21st century, reflecting the emergence of a strong international norm against such testing.
The Franco-German Brigade and the Revival of European Defense
One thing has been clear since Donald Trump's return to the White House: the very existence of the European unification project is threatened. Unless it develops a sovereign defense policy to counter the war in Ukraine and the weakening of American security guarantees, the European Union will continue to see its internal cohesion and external attractiveness wane.