The current election in Armenia is unprecedented, especially when it comes to external involvement. In the previous elections, there was a general understanding that whatever the outcome, it would be unlikely to change Armenia’s geopolitical orientation as a Russian ally. This time, the main contenders are the incumbent government, which advocates reducing dependence on Moscow and establishing a new quality of relations with the West, and the opposition that calls for a return to an alliance with Russia. World leaders have openly taken sides in this electoral battle: European leaders and the Trump administration have expressed their support for incumbent Nikol Pashinyan, while Moscow has thrown its support behind opposition leader, Russian-Armenian billionaire Samvel Karapetyan.

The upcoming election can be seen as a vote of confidence in incumbent Prime Minister (PM) Pashinyan’s foreign policy, focused on two priorities: “diversification” and the “peace agenda”. “Diversification” refers to Armenia’s attempt to distance itself from Russia and find new foreign policy partners. In recent years, Armenia has visibly moved away from its long-standing dependence on Russia in the area of security. Thus, Armenia has frozen its participation in the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and has almost stopped arms procurement from Russia, purchasing military equipment from other countries, including India and France.  Russian border guards have been asked to leave the checkpoints in Yerevan airport and on the Armenia-Iran border.  

This shift has been driven by the collapse of confidence in Moscow as a security guarantor because of Moscow’s passive stance during successive existential crises facing Armenia in recent years (including the 44-day war in 2020, clashes on the Armenia-Azerbaijan border in September 2022, and Azerbaijan’s 2023 offensive, which led to the exodus of Karabakh Armenians). Russia’s passivity in these crises has triggered a negative shift in public attitudes toward Russia, a shift reflected by the incumbent government’s policy. However, this shift has not been completed: the Russian military base remains in Gyumri, and Russian border guards are still stationed along the Armenia-Turkey and Armenia-Iran borders (though not at the checkpoints). The Armenian government has been wary of completely alienating Russia.

“Diversification” also implies closer links with Europe. The European Political Community Summit in Yerevan in May, followed by the first European Union (EU)-Armenia summit, marked a symbolic and political milestone in the relationship. It also helped the Armenian government present Armenia as an active participant in European diplomacy. The summit also led to a crisis in relations with Russia, especially due to Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky’s visit and the statements he made in Yerevan.  At the same time, it is also clear that the goal of joining the European Union (EU), which was enshrined in legislation adopted by the Armenian parliament a year ago,  remains a strategic priority at best, rather than a realistic short-term goal. Armenia remains a part of the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU), with key dependencies on Russia as an energy supplier and as an export market.

However, “diversification” is not only about Europe. Yerevan managed to simultaneously advance its relations with the Trump administration as well. The United States of America (USA) helped bring Armenia-Azerbaijan negotiations to a close with the signing of the August 2025 Washington Accords. The accords also include the creation of the so-called “Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity” (TRIPP), which helped to resolve the remaining controversies between Azerbaijan and Armenia. This is a road that will connect Azerbaijan to its exclave, Nakhchivan, over Armenian territory and will be managed by a joint American-Armenian company. Armenia has been visited by the US Vice President and the Secretary of State, who promised lucrative contracts in the spheres of nuclear energy and AI technology.  Recently, Donald Trump endorsed Nikol Pashinyan in a social media post. Armenia also seeks to reduce its dependence on Russia by widening its relations with the global South. Thus, India became an important partner in terms of arms procurement. Armenia’s neighbors, Iran and Georgia, remain a priority, and Yerevan is doing its best to make sure that its relations with the EU and the US do not affect its relations with these countries.

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