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Can carbon markets make a breakthrough at COP29?

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Voluntary carbon markets (VCMs) have a strong potential, notably to help bridge the climate finance gap, especially for Africa.

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Reforestation in mixed forests by planting young trees
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However, the past years have seen an uninterrupted series of controversies, with carbon projects accused of lacking transparency, having little or no mitigation effect, and even leading to Human Rights abuse. Investments have fallen.

The potential remains high for international carbon markets, with or without a COP 29 Agreement. Actors such as African countries or the Gulf region have high expectations. They are investing important resources in the development of new organizations and mechanisms that may share the carbon markets of tomorrow. 

VCMs need to improve their transparency, integrity, better demonstrate their sustainable development benefits, and to advance robust and convincing data about their impact on climate change.

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979-10-373-0934-1

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Can carbon markets make a breakthrough at COP29?

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Author(s)
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Thibaud VOÏTA

Thibaud VOÏTA

Intitulé du poste

Associate Research Fellow, Energy and Climate Center, Ifri

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Climate & Energy
Center for Energy & Climate
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Ifri's Energy and Climate Center carries out activities and research on the geopolitical and geoeconomic issues of energy transitions such as energy security, competitiveness, control of value chains, and acceptability. Specialized in the study of European energy/climate policies as well as energy markets in Europe and around the world, its work also focuses on the energy and climate strategies of major powers such as the United States, China or India. It offers recognized expertise, enriched by international collaborations and events, particularly in Paris and Brussels.

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How to Make European e-SAF Production under RefuelEU Aviation Fly?

Date de publication
18 June 2026
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Three and a half years before the scheduled entry into force of the European regulation ReFuelEU Aviation (RFEUA), which requires aviation fuel suppliers at Union airports to offer a sustainable synthetic alternative (e-SAF), no sizeable commercial production unit (greater than 10,000 tons per year) is active within Europe yet, nor has it even passed the Final Investment Decision (FID). Is a major step in the European Union (EU) plans for decarbonizing air transport at risk of not happening, or at least being postponed for several years? Is Europe losing its bet to create a market for e-SAF? Under what conditions can this bet still be won? Could sovereignty and energy security preoccupations unlock necessary public support and help to overcome economic, financial, logistical or administrative obstacles?

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Date de publication
10 June 2026
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The European biomethane sector is at a critical juncture.

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Europe’s Power Grid Challenge: A Make-or-Break for Accelerating Electrification

Date de publication
26 May 2026
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In April 2023, The Economist published an article pointing to the vast amounts of electricity infrastructure needed to reach energy transition goals. 

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Germany Maintains Its Single Electricity Price Zone: Implications

Date de publication
22 April 2026
Accroche

In December 2025, Germany refused to split its bidding zone despite recommendations from ENTSO-E, in order to preserve its federal unity, market liquidity, and the competitiveness of its industry, at the cost of persistent North-South imbalances.

François NUC
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Couverture du briefing sur les marchés carbone
Reforestation in mixed forests by planting young trees
© Dietrich Leppert/Shutterstock

How can this study be cited?

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Couverture du briefing sur les marchés carbone
Thibaud VOÏTA, « Can carbon markets make a breakthrough at COP29? », Memos, Ifri, 30 October 2024.
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Can carbon markets make a breakthrough at COP29?