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Imagining Beyond the Imaginary. The Use of Red Teaming and Serious Games in Anticipation and Foresight

Memos
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Références
Briefings de l’Ifri, Ifri, March 30, 2023
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The Red Team Defence demonstrates the Ministry of the Armed Forces' desire to appropriate new foresight tools. Thus, brain games or serious games aim to bypass the weight of the military hierarchy, the standardisation of thoughts and cognitive biases in order to avoid strategic unthinking.

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Military pieces on a map illustrating the territorial disputes in the South China Sea.
Military pieces on a map illustrating the territorial disputes in the South China Sea.
© Shutterstock
Corps analyses
In September 2022, The New York Times revealed that the successful Ukrainian offensive on Kharkiv had been prepared in a series of wargames conducted that summer. Given this success, further wargames have been undertaken with a view to a possible Ukrainian counter-offensive in the spring. This rise in the popularity of wargames, which come in various forms, is due to their ability to immerse participants in a situation, helping them to become aware of their strategic and tactical blind spots and to identify their own vulnerabilities by putting themselves in the enemy’s position. The ability to anticipate crises and foresee conflicts is essential in order to maintain the initiative and ultimately win out. Thus, the aim of defense foresight is to understand the different forms future wars might take (asymmetric, hybrid, high intensity), the weapons systems that may be employed (drones, high-velocity missiles), and the factors that could trigger them.
 
The use of wargames or scenario analyses to facilitate anticipation and foresight goes hand in hand with changes in the relationship between military and political leaders and civilians, who no longer hesitate to hold the former to account when they have failed to foresee a crisis. The German sociologist Ulrich Beck thus refers to the paradox of a society that is keen to predict the future because of its aversion to risk and the fact that it is now much more difficult to foresee what might happen in the short term due to very rapid technological developments. The modern world generates both risks and progress, and the inability to foresee strategic ruptures carries significant political costs, which explains why politicians set so much store in anticipation and foresight.
 
The initiatives launched by Florence Parly after being appointed French minister of the armed forces in 2017 included promoting experimentation in new cognitive tools. Beyond the issue of technology, the aim was to rethink information management within the ministry in order to make it more agile and cross-cutting. In addition to a significant budget allocated to innovation in the 2019–2025 Military Programming Law, the Ministry of the Armed Forces has drawn inspiration from methods often originating in other organizational cultures, such as start-ups and the private sector, in order to improve its creativity and accelerate its adoption of digital technology.
 

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Imagining Beyond the Imaginary. The Use of Red Teaming and Serious Games in Anticipation and Foresight

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Author(s)
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Héloïse FAYET

Héloïse FAYET

Intitulé du poste

Chercheuse, responsable du programme dissuasion et prolifération, Centre des études de sécurité de l'Ifri

Photo
amelie-min.jpg

Amélie FÉREY

Intitulé du poste

Ancienne Chercheuse, ancienne responsable du Laboratoire de recherche sur la défense (LRD), Centre des études de sécurité de l’Ifri

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 A soldier watching a sunset on an armored infantry fighting vehicle
Security Studies Center
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Heir to a tradition dating back to the founding of Ifri, the Security Studies Center provides public and private decision-makers as well as the general public with the keys to understanding power relations and contemporary modes of conflict as well as those to come. Through its positioning at the juncture of politics and operations, the credibility of its civil-military team and the wide distribution of its publications in French and English, the Center for Security Studies constitutes in the French landscape of think tanks a unique center of research and influence on the national and international defense debate.

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Date de publication
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Public sentiment is something decision-makers must contend with, especially in democratic states. However, the extent to which public opinion shapes foreign policy varies. Three Council of Councils experts in France, India, and Nigeria reflect on how public opinion does—and sometimes does not—affect foreign policy decisions.

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Over the past ten years, NATO has held almost as many summits as it did during the entirety of the Cold War. Are they still useful, or is it time to stop holding annual meetings?

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Date de publication
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Accroche

France’s nuclear deterrent, serving first and foremost to defend France’s vital interests, also contributes to the defense of Europe. This contribution has been recognized within the North Atlantic Alliance since 1974, but remains little known. In a speech closely followed by France’s European partners and its adversaries alike, President Emmanuel Macron announced a new concept for French nuclear deterrence: “forward deterrence” (dissuasion avancée). This article aims to explain the origins of this concept, outline its main pillars, and describe the partnerships that are sought. It then discusses the relationship with the U.S. doctrine of “extended deterrence”, and finally offers some ethical considerations.

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Fury from the Skies. A Strategic Analysis of Air Campaign against Iran

Date de publication
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Accroche

What is the outcome of Operations Roaring Lion (RL) and Epic Fury (EF), launched by Israel and the United States against the Islamic Republic of Iran on February 28, 2026?

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Military pieces on a map illustrating the territorial disputes in the South China Sea.
© Shutterstock

How can this study be cited?

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Héloïse FAYET, Amélie FÉREY, « Imagining Beyond the Imaginary. The Use of Red Teaming and Serious Games in Anticipation and Foresight », Memos, Ifri, 30 March 2023.
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Imagining Beyond the Imaginary. The Use of Red Teaming and Serious Games in Anticipation and Foresight