The New Geopolitics of Energy
Following the dramatic floods in Valencia, and as COP29 opens in Baku, climate change is forcing us to closely reexamine the pace—and the stumbling blocks—of the energy transition.
From Cuba to Ukraine: Strategic Signaling and Nuclear Deterrence
Strategic signaling—the range of signs and maneuvers intended, in peace time, to lend credibility to any threat to use nuclear weapons—is back.
Russian Military Manpower After Two and a Half Years of War in Ukraine
In addition to a military victory in Ukraine, the Russian leadership is planning to build up sizable troop formations for a possible conflict with NATO in the Baltic region and the Kola Peninsula. In particular, current plans aim for the military manpower to grow by about 350,000, reaching a total of 1.5 million soldiers and commanders. In the context of the current conflict in Ukraine, this cannot be accomplished without a new wave of mass mobilization.
Russian Strategic Thinking and Culture Before and After February 24, 2022: Political-Strategic Aspects
Written by Dimitri Minic, the scientific article "Russian Strategic Thinking and Culture Before and After February 24, 2022: Political-Strategic Aspects" in Russia’s war against Ukraine: Complexity of Contemporary Clausewitzian War by the National Defence University Department of Warfare, Helsinki 2024.
From Ukraine to Gaza: Military Uses of Artificial Intelligence
The wars in Ukraine and Gaza show us the extent to which artificial intelligence (AI) has become integral to battlefield operations.
Russia in the Arctic: The End of Illusions and the Emergence of Strategic Realignments
Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has triggered profound changes in the Arctic region, the consequences of which remain uncertain in the long term.
In Putin's wartime Russia, military corruption is suddenly taboo
To be sure government spending reaches the battlefield in Ukraine, President Vladimir Putin is suddenly putting high priority on purging Defense Ministry officials accused of corruption. Russia's war in Ukraine has turned out to be a powerful anti-corruption initiative — at least at the Ministry of Defense.
The New Russian Diaspora: Europe’s Challenge and Opportunity
This report assesses both the scale and the roots of the outward migration from the Russian Federation coinciding with Putin’s turning of Russia into an aggressive authoritarian state.
Populism and International Relations
Populism is flourishing, in Europe and elsewhere: a populist holds power today in Argentina and perhaps tomorrow in the United States. What does its spread say about our societies? And how is it shaping them, where populists rule? Do their economic policies stand any chance of success? Do their foreign policies have a greater impact on the world around them or at home? If “Trump 2.0” comes to be, will he have a free hand? If so, what can we expect?
Global Governance, Ukraine, and the European Union: Quo Vadis?
The technological revolution of the latter half of the twentieth century, 9/11, and the 2007–2008 financial crisis have delimited the West’s dream of harmonious globalization.
The New Russian Diaspora: Europe’s Challenge and Opportunity
This report assesses both the scale and the roots of the outward migration from the Russian Federation coinciding with Putin’s turning of Russia into an aggressive authoritarian state.
Global Governance, Ukraine, and the European Union: Quo Vadis?
The technological revolution of the latter half of the twentieth century, 9/11, and the 2007–2008 financial crisis have delimited the West’s dream of harmonious globalization.
The Wind Rose’s Directions: Russia’s Strategic Deterrence during the First Year of the War in Ukraine
How the Russian Army Changed its Concept of War, 1993-2022
The traditional and high-intensity war that has occurred in Ukraine since Russia decided to invade raises a key issue: did post-soviet Russian strategic thought really prepare Russia for waging this war?
EU's China policy staying on track despite intensifying debate
While French President Emmanuel Macron’s state visit to China is viewed by some to be an exercise in stirring the pot, this does not mean that the European boat has veered off course. The EU is used to robust debate among and within member states, and can take this as another opportunity to affirm their stance on China.
Emmanuel Macron Visits China: Stability in the Taiwan Strait Should be a Priority for France
President Emmanuel Macron will visit China from April 4 to 8 for the first time since 2019 and five months after his meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping, on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Bali.
Russia’s War in Ukraine: Misleading Doctrine, Misguided Strategy
The blame for committing the blunder of starting the war with Ukraine is deservedly placed on President Vladimir Putin, but a single-explanation interpretation of the unfolding disaster is unsatisfactory.
Reflection on Russia’s Changing Image in the Post-Soviet Region
The two years preceding the Russian invasion of Ukraine suggested that Russia had adopted a measured policy toward the post-Soviet space. Faced with social protests in Belarus, a coup in Kyrgyzstan, the victory of pro-European president Maia Sandu in Moldova, the second war in Nagorno-Karabakh, and riots in Kazakhstan, Russia showed diplomatic ability without any hard arm-twisting of partners. In 2020, then Carnegie Moscow Center director Dmitry Trenin even concluded that “there will be no new edition of the empire”. The war in Ukraine has completely changed this analysis.
Germany, the “Zeitenwende” and the Future of NATO
Rapprochement in Times of Crisis: War in Ukraine and the EU-Japan Partnership
The war in Ukraine has shaken the foundations of European security and of the global rules-based order. In many ways, Russia’s aggression has been a wake-up call for the EU, adding a sense of urgency to its ongoing transformation to becoming a stronger geopolitical actor, materialised by the recent publication of its Strategic Compass – its first-ever white paper for security and defence.
France’s Macron Renews Call for a Sovereign Europe Less Reliant on Foreign Powers
French president’s remarks follow criticism over his warning that Europe should steer clear of U.S.-China tensions over Taiwan
Does Macron's stance on Taiwan weaken G7 deterrence against China?
One of Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s top goals for next month’s Group of Seven summit in Hiroshima is to create a united front on issues like China and Ukraine. But finding a unified approach to dealing with Beijing’s assertiveness might have just become harder.
Europe is ‘counting on China’ to end Russia’s war in Ukraine, leaders tell Xi Jinping in Beijing
European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen and French President Emmanuel Macron deliver united message to Chinese president during visit ; but as French leader signed over 20 business deals on China trip, EU chief took sterner line with Xi on economic grievances, human rights and Taiwan
In China, Macron appeals to Xi to help end Ukraine conflict
French President Emmanuel Macron called on Chinese President Xi Jinping to help convince Russia to hold negotiations toward ending the war in Ukraine as the two leaders met in Beijing on Thursday.
France’s Emmanuel Macron to Press Xi Jinping on China’s Support of Russia
French President Emmanuel Macron is expected to press Chinese leader Xi Jinping during a trip to China this week to limit support for Russia in its war against Ukraine, according to French officials, amid growing Western concerns over Beijing’s deepening economic and political ties with Moscow.
Xi's Moscow Visit Risks Further Emboldening Putin: Analysts
There is no sign the visit of Chinese President Xi Jinping to Moscow will rein in President Vladimir Putin in his war in Ukraine, even if it again highlights a lopsided relationship where Russia is clearly the junior partner, analysts say.
France is already sending an armored ‘oddity’ to Ukraine. Now this can send a little odd.
France may send Ukraine its AMX-10Ps, an amphibious infantry fighting vehicle that was phased out of service by the French army nearly a decade ago.
The E.U. Offered to Embrace Ukraine, but Now What?
The European Union and NATO have promised a path to membership for the embattled country. But real partnership will hold risks and benefits for both sides.
Macron pirouettes on Russia to the strains of ‘Churchill and Chamberlain’
President Emmanuel Macron’s nuanced position on the war in Ukraine is part and parcel of yet another French specificity, an attitude towards Russia which is unique in Europe. Macron prides himself on being a moderate among western warmongers.
How will it end? No easy answers over Russia's war on Ukraine
The Kremlin wanted Russia's invasion of Ukraine to yield a lightning victory, but 12 months on the war is dragging into a stalemate with neither side achieving military breakthrough nor prepared to agree a settlement based on the status quo.
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