Has ASEAN become Marginalized within Regional Security Architecture?
South Asian leaders continue to reiterate how “central” ASEAN is to the region’s security architecture. However, in practice, the tendency is to prioritize bilateral agreements, gradually marginalizing the organization. This fragmentation is weakening regional cooperation, accentuating divisions, and compromising stability in the context of growing tensions in the Indo-Pacific. These trends are worrying at a time when Sino-American rivalries are becoming more acute.
The Gulf Search for Power(s) / Politique étrangère, Vol. 90, No. 4, 2025
Persian Gulf countries have become heavyweights in the international arena, wielding influence both regionally and far beyond. Acting as diplomatic mediators, investors, and hosts of global events, they are attempting to move beyond their long-standing role as suppliers of energy resources and reshape their economic, social, and political foundations through ambitious national “Visions”. Their international alliances are proving increasingly flexible, broadening their diplomatic reach (even if Washington’s influence remains decisive)—with Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates all part of a dynamic pushing many global actors toward multi-alignment.
Caught between China and the US: Southeast Asia’s Strategic Fence-Sitting
The secret of success for many Southeast Asian countries has been their choice of economic and diplomatic multilateralism. Fence-sitting between rival powers is becoming fraught. China inspires a degree of fear in the region, due to its clout and geographical proximity. And under Trump, the United States is on the offensive against the multilateral trade system, with major diplomatic consequences. Can Southeast Asian countries maintain their balance by embracing new partnerships?
Europe is trying to woo Southeast Asia — but it won’t win it over the U.S. or China
European leaders are looking to Southeast Asia with renewed interest amid Washington’s aggressive tariff agenda, but experts warn that the state of regional trade ties makes it challenging to disrupt the U.S. or China’s hold.
France seeks third way between US and China in Southeast Asia
The French leader sent a message of partnership but gave few concrete details on sustained engagement plans.
The 'Macron Doctrine' goes to Asia: Autonomy with partners, steady on China
The French president calls for a 'third way' in the Indo-Pacific
The Prospects of Indonesia’s Nickel Boom Amidst a Systemic Challenge from Coal
Indonesia is a country that is booming economically and demographically. This not only matters for regional, political, and energy security, but also increasingly, for the world’s energy transitions, due to Indonesia’s large metal reserves, as well as its equally important coal consumption in industry and for power generation.
Over the last 20 years, Indonesia’s economy has been characterized by very dynamic growth, massive increases in its electricity demand, and coal consumption and exports. Hence, its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are on a steady growth trajectory, although the country has committed to lowering them by 32% (unconditional) or 41% (conditional) by 2030.
With its Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) membership application, occurring in the context of global energy transition requirements and geopolitical confrontations, Indonesia is today at a crossroads.
Indonesia’s 2024 Presidential Elections: Campaigning for Continuity
Indonesia is gearing up for its next general election on February 14, with a potential runoff scheduled in late June. This major electoral process will determine the nation’s next president and vice-president since incumbent President Joko Widodo, also known as Jokowi, will step down after ten years in office in compliance with the constitutional limit of two terms.
The War in Ukraine and Rising Global Tensions: A Southeast Asian Perspective (Replay)
A debate with Simon Tay, Chairman of the Singapore Institute of International Affairs (SIIA), Associate Professor at the National University of Singapore, and Singapore’s Ambassador to Greece.
Asia after the War in Ukraine: Re-imagining multilateralism and the risk of high-intensity conflict (video replay)
Annual conference of Ifri's Center for Asian Studies. The war in Ukraine has marked the return of high-intensity conflict in Europe and represents a profound, structural shift in the region’s strategic environment. It also takes place against a backdrop of a decades-long rebalancing of global power and the increase of strategic competition between the United States and China, in particular.
French "State Action at Sea" as a Model for SE Asian Coast Guards
South-East Asian countries like Philippines and Indonesia have to cope with an increasing number of maritime issues in order to exert their sovereign rights over their territorial waters, archipelagic waters and exclusive economic zones (EEZ). In the midst of a tense geostrategic environment, the security of maritime areas and, more broadly, security in the high seas, are subject to major threats and illegal activities as recently summarized in the last Information Fusion Centre (IFC) annual report: piracy and sea robbery, maritime terrorism, cyber-attacks and AIS spoofing, trafficking of all kinds, illegal fishing activities and maritime pollution.
China's Rising Trade Activism in ASEAN: Implications for the EU
As the world’s center of gravity has shifted to Asia, the European Union must also be present in the region. In particular, it must develop its relations with Asian countries that have long been neglected to the sole benefit of China -- namely India, but above all the countries of Southeast Asia, where China has invested heavily and will continue to gain influence.
AUKUS Rocks the Boat in the Indo-Pacific, And It’s Not Good News
For anyone who still harbored doubts, Washington made crystal clear from the announcement of the new trilateral alliance with Australia and the UK (AUKUS) that countering China is its number one priority, and that it will do whatever it takes to succeed. Much has been said about the consequences of AUKUS on the French-US relations, but the strategic implications for the Indo-Pacific nations (including France), and for China especially, are also critical to consider.
China and South-East Asia: Has the Die Been Cast?
China is exerting pressure on its surrounding area in South-East Asia to implement its concept of a “community with a shared destiny”.
East Asia Confronted with China
China is now an undeniable heavyweight on the international scene, wielding a remarkable range of political strategies. Studying its position in the surrounding area of Southeast Asia in relation to Japan, Korea, Taiwan, and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries, as well as Australia, gives us an understanding of both the strength and the limits of such a diverse range of actions.
Back to 'basket case'? Myanmar economy at risk after coup
Foreign investors flocked to Myanmar as it began its democratic transition a decade ago, but this week's military coup is likely to accelerate a trend of Western withdrawal -- and China's expansion.
Rethinking Economic Security in the (Post) COVID-19 World
The COVID-19 crisis has highlighted the risks of an excessive dependence on one single economic partner and has prompted a rethinking of what economic security really entails.
The ‘Conservative Turn’ in Indonesian Islam: Implications for the 2019 Presidential Elections
Despite Indonesia’s reputation for a traditionally moderate brand of Islam, religious conservativism is gaining considerable political traction in the lead up to this April’s presidential election.
Russia’s Relations with Southeast Asia
In recent years, Russia has focused on developing its relations with Southeast Asia, particularly in the areas of economic ties and arms sales.
New and Emerging LNG Markets: The Demand Shock
Over the past decade, an increasing number of emerging markets has joined the liquefied natural gas (LNG) import club.
Has ASEAN become Marginalized within Regional Security Architecture?
South Asian leaders continue to reiterate how “central” ASEAN is to the region’s security architecture. However, in practice, the tendency is to prioritize bilateral agreements, gradually marginalizing the organization. This fragmentation is weakening regional cooperation, accentuating divisions, and compromising stability in the context of growing tensions in the Indo-Pacific. These trends are worrying at a time when Sino-American rivalries are becoming more acute.
Caught between China and the US: Southeast Asia’s Strategic Fence-Sitting
The secret of success for many Southeast Asian countries has been their choice of economic and diplomatic multilateralism. Fence-sitting between rival powers is becoming fraught. China inspires a degree of fear in the region, due to its clout and geographical proximity. And under Trump, the United States is on the offensive against the multilateral trade system, with major diplomatic consequences. Can Southeast Asian countries maintain their balance by embracing new partnerships?
The Gulf Search for Power(s) / Politique étrangère, Vol. 90, No. 4, 2025
Persian Gulf countries have become heavyweights in the international arena, wielding influence both regionally and far beyond. Acting as diplomatic mediators, investors, and hosts of global events, they are attempting to move beyond their long-standing role as suppliers of energy resources and reshape their economic, social, and political foundations through ambitious national “Visions”. Their international alliances are proving increasingly flexible, broadening their diplomatic reach (even if Washington’s influence remains decisive)—with Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates all part of a dynamic pushing many global actors toward multi-alignment.
France seeks third way between US and China in Southeast Asia
The French leader sent a message of partnership but gave few concrete details on sustained engagement plans.
The Prospects of Indonesia’s Nickel Boom Amidst a Systemic Challenge from Coal
Indonesia is a country that is booming economically and demographically. This not only matters for regional, political, and energy security, but also increasingly, for the world’s energy transitions, due to Indonesia’s large metal reserves, as well as its equally important coal consumption in industry and for power generation.
Over the last 20 years, Indonesia’s economy has been characterized by very dynamic growth, massive increases in its electricity demand, and coal consumption and exports. Hence, its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are on a steady growth trajectory, although the country has committed to lowering them by 32% (unconditional) or 41% (conditional) by 2030.
With its Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) membership application, occurring in the context of global energy transition requirements and geopolitical confrontations, Indonesia is today at a crossroads.
Indonesia’s 2024 Presidential Elections: Campaigning for Continuity
Indonesia is gearing up for its next general election on February 14, with a potential runoff scheduled in late June. This major electoral process will determine the nation’s next president and vice-president since incumbent President Joko Widodo, also known as Jokowi, will step down after ten years in office in compliance with the constitutional limit of two terms.
AUKUS Rocks the Boat in the Indo-Pacific, And It’s Not Good News
For anyone who still harbored doubts, Washington made crystal clear from the announcement of the new trilateral alliance with Australia and the UK (AUKUS) that countering China is its number one priority, and that it will do whatever it takes to succeed. Much has been said about the consequences of AUKUS on the French-US relations, but the strategic implications for the Indo-Pacific nations (including France), and for China especially, are also critical to consider.
China and South-East Asia: Has the Die Been Cast?
China is exerting pressure on its surrounding area in South-East Asia to implement its concept of a “community with a shared destiny”.
The ‘Conservative Turn’ in Indonesian Islam: Implications for the 2019 Presidential Elections
Despite Indonesia’s reputation for a traditionally moderate brand of Islam, religious conservativism is gaining considerable political traction in the lead up to this April’s presidential election.
Catching Up or Staying Ahead. Japanese Investment in the Mekong Region and the China Factor
There is no denying that the Mekong region has become an economic battleground where Japan and China are competing to gain and sustain economic influence in the region.
Democracy in Asia: Models, Trends and Geopolitical Implications
Assessing the state of democracy in Asia is a challenge. While some countries, such as Japan and India, have been showing the way from early days, some others, such as in Southeast Asia are still struggling to ensure stable and sustainable democratic institutions and practices.
South China Sea and the Law of the Sea: Where is China’s Power Heading?
On Tuesday July 12th, after three years of deliberations, the Permanent Court of Arbitration finally delivered its verdict on the conflict opposing the Philippines and China over status of the Spratly Islands in the South China Sea. The judgment is historic, as it goes far beyond the expectations of the involved parties and observers.
Scientific Cooperation in the South China Sea: A vector for China's security diplomacy in Southeast Asia?
The Arab Revolts and Southeast Asia: What Impact and What Influence?
Southeast Asia experienced its own political upheavals well before the Arab revolts. Nevertheless, the wave of popular uprisings that shook the Middle-East and North Africa region goes far beyond the region’s boundaries, and Southeast Asia is no exception to the global crisis of confidence towards governments.
From 'Looking' to Engaging: India and East Asia
The Look East policy (LEP), launched in the early 1990s, was intended to engage India more closely with the East Asian region, but it met with only limited success initially, for India was not seen to be a major contributor either to regional security or economic development.
The Evolving Role of Southeast Asia in Global FDI Flows
This paper traces the evolution of FDI in ASEAN and discusses future prospects for the region as a host - and increasingly home - to FDI.
Europe is trying to woo Southeast Asia — but it won’t win it over the U.S. or China
European leaders are looking to Southeast Asia with renewed interest amid Washington’s aggressive tariff agenda, but experts warn that the state of regional trade ties makes it challenging to disrupt the U.S. or China’s hold.
The 'Macron Doctrine' goes to Asia: Autonomy with partners, steady on China
The French president calls for a 'third way' in the Indo-Pacific
French "State Action at Sea" as a Model for SE Asian Coast Guards
South-East Asian countries like Philippines and Indonesia have to cope with an increasing number of maritime issues in order to exert their sovereign rights over their territorial waters, archipelagic waters and exclusive economic zones (EEZ). In the midst of a tense geostrategic environment, the security of maritime areas and, more broadly, security in the high seas, are subject to major threats and illegal activities as recently summarized in the last Information Fusion Centre (IFC) annual report: piracy and sea robbery, maritime terrorism, cyber-attacks and AIS spoofing, trafficking of all kinds, illegal fishing activities and maritime pollution.
Menace islamiste, loi martiale, ... que se passe-t-il aux Philippines?
Philippines' President wants to limit islamist groups' capacity after several attacks in the South of the country.
Chinese missile crisis? Escalation over disputed China Sea islands
Reports have emerged that China has set up a missile launch base on Woody Island, part of an archipelago disputed with Taiwan and Vietnam. This comes just as the US President was wrapping up an ASEAN summit to strengthen ties after the recent Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal. How will this shape policy not only among Washington's traditional allies in the region but also in countries like Vietnam? Once again, a war-weary US is being called upon and has to look at the broader picture.
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