France vs. Jihadism: The Republic in a New Age of Terror
This paper assesses the current state of the jihadist threat to France, as well as the French authorities’ security response. With the upcoming presidential election, 2017 will be a decisive year for the country. Terrorism will be at the heart of the campaign and ISIS will most likely try to strike again.
The current French Administration has certainly been very active in fighting terrorism. However, the threats originating from both outside and within the country remain extremely high. As ISIS is slowly dwindling in Iraq and Syria, the flow of returning jihadists will increase. This terrorist organization may be tempted to make up for its territorial loss by committing spectacular attacks in the West. France is also challenged internally. It must deal with unrelenting social and religious tensions, but also, more pragmatically, the fact that 80% of convicts of terrorism will be released over the next five years. This undoubtedly casts an ominous shadow over the future.
This paper was originally published in the following book: Abu Rumman, Mohammad Suliman et. al., Methods of Preventing and Combatting Terrorism in the MENA Region and in the West, Amman (Jordan), Friedrich Ebert Stiftung, 2016. It can be accessed at www.fes-jordan.org. An Arabic translation is also available: http://library.fes.de/pdf-files/bueros/amman/13088.pdf
Available in:
Regions and themes
Share
Download the full analysis
This page contains only a summary of our work. If you would like to have access to all the information from our research on the subject, you can download the full version in PDF format.
France vs. Jihadism: The Republic in a New Age of Terror
Author(s)
Marc HECKER
Executive Director of Ifri, Editor-in-Chief of Politique étrangère, and Research Fellow at the Security Studies Center, Ifri
Élie TENENBAUM
Director of Ifri’s Security Studies Center
Related centers and programs
Discover our other research centers and programs
Security Studies Center
Heir to a tradition dating back to the founding of Ifri, the Security Studies Center provides public and private decision-makers as well as the general public with the keys to understanding power relations and contemporary modes of conflict as well as those to come. Through its positioning at the juncture of politics and operations, the credibility of its civil-military team and the wide distribution of its publications in French and English, the Center for Security Studies constitutes in the French landscape of think tanks a unique center of research and influence on the national and international defense debate.
Internal Security
The distinction between internal and external threats is often exaggerated, as the borders are so porous. Conflicts taking place thousands of kilometers from France can have tragic resonances on national territory. Radicalization, terrorism and even organized crime have an international dimension that cannot be ignored.
Find out more
Discover all our analyses
Strategic Shift in NATO’s Support for Ukraine. A Study of NSATU and PURL Initiatives
French Forward Deterrence: What Is in It for the Baltic States?
For what may be its most significant stress test since the end of the Cold War, European deterrence is under strain. Russia’s war against Ukraine has demonstrated Moscow’s willingness to use force and its ability to combine conventional operations with nuclear signalling, coercive rhetoric, and hybrid actions. At the same time, the gradual deterioration of transatlantic relations has revived concerns about the reliability of extended deterrence.
Europe at the Crossroads of DefTech: Rethinking the European Defense Innovation Ecosystem
“The way I look at Iron Dome is as the ultimate manifestation of the future of the United States’ role in future conflicts, which is not to be the world police, but to be the world gun store,” said Palmer Luckey in November 2023. Luckey is the founder of Anduril, one of the most prominent DefTech companies. The ambition is clear: to participate in global rearmament by capitalizing on the quality of American innovations and to dominate the arms market—at least in the West—through technological mastery.
Taking the Pulse: Is France’s New Nuclear Doctrine Ambitious Enough?
French President Emmanuel Macron has unveiled his country’s new nuclear doctrine. Are the changes he has made enough to reassure France’s European partners in the current geopolitical context?