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Economy

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The economy is an essential attribute of power and a major component of international relations. While geopolitical tensions are on the rise, economic interdependence remains strong.

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Publications

Turkey-China Relations: Ambitions and Limits of the Economic Cooperation

Date de publication
05 October 2020
Accroche

At first glance, China and Turkey have many interests to cooperate. The deployment of the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Turkey's colossal investment and financing needs, as well as President Erdogan's mistrust of the West, appear as many converging interests. Yet economic cooperation between the two countries is struggling to achieve its full potential. Political differences persist, particularly the question of the Uyghurs.

Tolga BILENER
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Germany and the Economic and Monetary Union. Between the Search for Deeper European Integration and the Assertion of National Interests

Date de publication
28 September 2020
Accroche

Germany joined the creation of Economic and Monetary Union only with great hesitation and has tried to dictate the spirit and rules of operation of the Union.

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Mozambique: Security, Political and Geopolitical Challenges of the Gas Boom

Date de publication
31 August 2020
Accroche

The vast gas discoveries in Mozambique, some 160 trillion cubic feet (4,530 billion cubic meters), will make this very poor country (6th lowest gross national income (GNI) per capita – the lowest in Africa) one of the world’s future major producers of liquefied natural gas (LNG) within two decades.

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France and the Modernization of the EU-Turkey Customs Union: Interests and Obstacles

Date de publication
28 July 2020
Accroche

This report is part of a joint endeavor of the Centre for Applied Turkey Studies (CATS) at Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP), along with Elcano Royal Institute (ELCANO, Madrid), The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM, Warsaw), Istituto Affari Internazionali (IAI, Rome) and the Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP, Athens), to open perspectives for the modernization of the European Union-Turkey Customs Union (EU-Turkey CU). 

Aurélien DENIZEAU Dorothée SCHMID

Consequences and Lessons of a Virus

Date de publication
01 July 2020
Accroche

As Europeans get ready for their summer holidays, the Covid-19 pandemic seems to be winding down, despite hotspots cropping up here and there. However, we are not safe from the next wave. After so many careless speeches, nobody dares to make any more precise forecasts. In any case, any confirmed lull fosters broader reflections both on the disaster’s consequences and the dysfunctions that allowed it to happen.

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Economy and Diplomacy: China’s two Challenges in the Post-Covid-19 World

Date de publication
19 May 2020
Accroche

Will China rise stronger from the pandemic? A flow of media reports and op-eds have recently flourished, forecasting the decline of the West and the triumph of China on the world stage amid the COVID-19 pandemic. Some have declared the dawn of a “post-Western world”.

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Accelerating the Energy Transition: The Role of Green Finance and its Challenges for Europe

Date de publication
15 April 2020
Accroche

Green finance has been a burgeoning sector since the Paris Agreement and is at the crossroads of financial, socio-economic and environmental challenges. It is hybrid in nature: it uses financial instruments and focuses on environmental issues, while coming under the wider field of so-called “sustainable” finance that assumes a broader approach with the inclusion of socio-economic and governance challenges. It is a catalyst as it facilitates and accelerates the transition to a low-carbon economy. It also includes an increasing range of instruments. From green bonds to green indices, green loans and capital raising activities, the sector is growing both quantitatively and qualitatively. So-called “green” issuance debt alone increased fivefold in nearly three years to reach US $ 257 billion in 2019, emphasizing its on-going innovation and attractiveness.

Green finance embraces the various objectives of public and private actors. It also raises major questions about the future of our societies: choosing to finance only sectors that are already “green” entails significant socio-economic risks, such as job losses in high-emitting (brown) sectors and stranded assets. Adopting a sequenced approach potentially amounts to locking in polluting activities in the long term and not achieving the Paris Climate Agreement’s objectives (lock-in effect).

In view of the physical risks of climate change (devastation and disasters) and those related to energy transition (stranded assets), climate change is now generally considered as a systematic risk. Public and private actors– institutional investors, banks, regulators, central banks, insurers, credit rating agencies, states, multilateral organizations – are taking action both to better understand the risks posed by climate change, and to capitalize on opportunities in this growing field. Green finance provides the financial sector with instruments to effectively reorient capital towards the low-carbon transition. Against a background of uncertainty about the effects of climate change,[1] green finance also reduces the information asymmetry about risks related to major ecosystem disruptions. The structuring and distribution of “green” products are important growth drivers for many stakeholders and in a wide variety of sectors.

However, many risks and challenges remain: financial risks, specifically related to high levels of subsidies for the production and use of fossil fuels, and the lack of a single carbon price; structural risks, which hamper the economic attractiveness of sustainable activities, particularly in terms of profitability; and unclear political signals, notably resulting in regulatory uncertainty. Furthermore, the language of green finance remains fragmented and is still relatively vague: there are many reporting frameworks and taxonomies, preventing easy and uniform ownership by stakeholders. Standardized methodologies, requirements and disclosures are critically needed. A common language is required, not only among Europeans but worldwide, to ensure that financing the ecological transition is genuinely effective.

The quality and comparability of non-financial reporting must be significantly improved to ensure its effectiveness. The principle of double materiality of information – financial and non-financial – is crucial. Green finance provides the entire financial system with instruments to accomplish its transition. It also avoids both a “niche” and a lax approach that are conducive to greenwashing and damaging to the sector growth, and, ultimately, to the transitional objective of green finance. As a source of systemic risk, and in view of the challenges of financing the transition, the aim is to ensure that the concept of sustainable finance remains purposeful by integrating environmental, social and governance (ESG) “filters” into the overall operation of capital markets.

There are many risks of intentional or unintentional greenwashing for market actors: making wrong investment choices, because they are ill-informed about the real nature of sustainability; seeing their reputation discredited in their clients and fund managers’ eyes; undermining trust and the fundamentals of green finance.

The European Union (EU) has taken the lead on these issues. The European Commission’s (EC) Action Plan on Financing Sustainable Growth of March 2018 aims to reorient capital flows towards a more sustainable economy, integrate sustainability into financial institutions’ risk management and promote transparency and long-term awareness within financial institutions. This Action Plan includes numerous instruments, such as an Ecolabel for financial products, the development of a European standard for green bonds, a so-called “Disclosure” regulation legislating on non-financial reporting by market actors, and the clarification of banking and investment advisors’ duties in terms of integrating ESG factors and incorporating sustainability into prudential requirements for banks and insurers. One of the main instruments is the European “taxonomy” for sustainable economic activities, which is intended to establish a common language for greening the financial sector by covering a wide range of actors and activities, at least on a voluntary basis. This future taxonomy has major global potential that could boost the EU’s normative power. Consequently, these challenges are now the focus of the G20 and its Financial Stability Board (FSB), and that of the United Nations.

The EU’s sustainable finance strategy is over the long term, striving to take as comprehensive a view as possible of financial regulation and climate change, and therefore fully redirect capital flows towards financing the transition. The next few months will be critical for the future of the sector, with work continuing on the European taxonomy, the preparation of delegated acts subsequent to the final recommendations prepared by the EU’s Technical Expert Group on Sustainable Finance (TEG), and the implementation of the European Green Deal.

 

[1]. “Scientific Uncertainty”, Nature Climate Change, Vol. 9, No. 797, October 29, 2019, available at: www.nature.com; M. L. Weitzman, “Fat-Tailed Uncertainty in the Economics of Catastrophic Climate Change”, Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Vol. 5, No. 2, 2011, pp. 275-292, available at: https://doi.org.

Pauline DESCHRYVER Charlotte GARDES Théo MARET Clémence PELEGRIN
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South Korea’s Hydrogen Strategy and Industrial Perspectives

Date de publication
25 March 2020
Accroche

South Korea is a hydrogen (H2) frontrunner. The world’s first commercial fuel cell electric vehicle (FCEV) was launched by the South Korean car manufacturer Hyundai (Tucson i×35) in 2013.

POSCO Energy, South Korea’s largest private energy producer, completed the world’s largest fuel cell manufacturing plant in 2015. When President Moon took office in 2018, the new government identified H2 as a new growth engine, and pledged to turn the country into a H2 economy.

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The Middle East: The Economy in The Race for Power

Date de publication
23 March 2020
Accroche

Middle Eastern geopolitics is currently undergoing structural changes: the regional order is in transition in the aftermath of the Arab Spring that undermined authoritarian governance, and triggered the competition for power against a backdrop of American withdrawal. 

Dorothée SCHMID Amine BENBERNOU
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The Gulf Economies and Energy Transition

Date de publication
10 March 2020
Accroche

The economies of the Persian Gulf are highly dependent on their petrol exports, particularly to Asia.

The Financial Challenges of the Sub-Saharan Africa Telecoms Boom

Date de publication
09 June 2010
Accroche

Telecom industry has taken a significant place within of the economy of most African countries. In this aspect, it is an undeniable source of economic growth and development. It impacts on the financial sphere at three levels. 

Henri TCHENG Jean-Michel HUET Mouna ROMDHANE

Coming in from the Cold? An Update on North Korea's External Economic Relations

Date de publication
08 April 2010
Accroche

This brief analysis of the current external economic relations of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) leads to a number of conclusions.

The Future of the European Monetary Fund: Any Prospects?

Date de publication
30 March 2010
Accroche

The European summit last week has resulted in a compromise short-term agreement for aid to Greece.

Devon WEIDEMANN

Comparing Aid public policies in France and Germany

Date de publication
01 September 2008
Accroche

European Aid Ministers qualified 2008 as 'crucial for the development and the achievement of the Millennium Development Goals (MDO)'. So, the French presidency of the EU council devotes a part of its activities to Aid cooperation, mostly based on initiatives launched by Germany in 2007. In this article, both authors firstly compare Aid systems and their natures, and then explain why French and German approaches are often similar. Drawing up a panorama of these aid policies, also with common policies and projects, the authors would like to present common challenges that France and Germany are facing. Thus, they are looking for new leads to develop French-German cooperation in the field of Development.

Alexander VON KAP-HERR Jennifer MORREAU

Assertive Pragmatism: China's Economic Rise and its Impact on Chinese Foreign Policy

Date de publication
20 December 2006
Accroche

Proliferation Papers, No. 15, Fall 2006

Minxin PEI

Why and How Differentiate Developing Countries in the WTO? Theoretical Options and Negotiating Solutions

Date de publication
27 November 2005
Accroche

Anne-Sophie Novel and Jean-Marie Paugam (English written paper, to be release in hard copy in the beginning of 2006)

European Governance and European Public Opinion on Trade and Sustainable Development

Date de publication
04 November 2004
Accroche

Based on the Conclusions of the SUSTRA Workshop on 'European Governance and European Public Opinion on Trade and Sustainable Development', 03-04 June 2004, IFRI, Paris (France)

 

Jean-Marie PAUGAM

FDI as a Factor of Economic Restructuring: The Case of South Korea

Date de publication
18 March 2003
Accroche

Françoise Nicolas, in A. Bende-Nabende, (ed.), International Trade, Capital Flows and Economic Development in East Asia: The Challenge in the 21st Century, London, Ashgate, 2003

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Governance Issues in the Digital Economy

Date de publication
27 December 2002
Accroche

The expansion of the Internet as a major component of the knowledge-based society has been one of the more important economic, social and political developments of the past decades. It is commonly claimed that this “revolution” has been unplanned by any government and has flourished precisely because the Net and its users have been largely free of regulation by any government. Actually, rules have been set quite rapidly in cyberspace, and contrary to what the cyber-libertarians have been arguing, digital technologies have not severed the historical links between market and state.

Frédérique SACHWALD

Foreign Direct Investment in Developing Countries: Leveraging the Role of Multinationals

Date de publication
01 April 2002
Accroche

Why did the governments of developing and emerging countries reach a more favorable assessment of the role of multinationals? The major evolution is the deepening economic integration brought by globalization. Globalization accentuates the importance of the international economy for developing countries. And in this context, foreign direct investment (FDI) has become one of the most dynamic flows of resources to developing countries.

Frédérique SACHWALD Serge PERRIN

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Ifri, a foundation recognized as being of public utility, relies largely on private donors – companies and individuals – to guarantee its sustainability and intellectual independence. Through their funding, donors help maintain the Institute's position among the world's leading think tanks. By benefiting from an internationally recognized network and expertise, donors refine their understanding of geopolitical risk and its consequences on global politics and the economy. In 2025, Ifri supports more than 80 French and foreign companies and organizations.

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Geoeconomics and Geofinance Initiative
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To analyze the impact of power rivalries and tensions on globalization, this initiative combines economic and political expertise. In the face of growing geopolitical risk, the goal is to decipher the dynamics of reconfiguration: protectionist pressures, sanctions, restrictions, industrial policies, and economic security concerns are redefining the rules of international trade. These tensions are also transforming international financial relations by undermining the foundations of trust and reshaping the global monetary system. They raise questions about the role of several key players: sovereign wealth funds, central banks, digital platforms, multilateral institutions, and financial infrastructure operators. In a context of profound disruption, simply refining existing approaches is no longer sufficient. The initiative is designed as a flexible model, drawing on diverse expertise to offer both broad overviews and targeted analyses. It also provides a platform for stakeholders and experts from various backgrounds to debate these issues freely.

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