Nearly 8,000 kilometers away, armed men boarded a ship crossing the Strait of Malacca in the South China Sea at night. There was no damage. But it was the 80th attack in this passage since the beginning of the year.

Crossing points for most of the world’s trade
What do these two maritime areas have in common? They are among the busiest shipping lanes in the world and are essential for international trade. Bab al-Mandab controls access to the Red Sea and therefore to the Suez Canal, through which nearly 12% of global trade passed just a few months ago. The Strait of Malacca, which winds between Singapore, Malaysia and Indonesia, is a vital route for China and the rest of the world. It carries between a quarter and a third of global maritime trade, of which most of the goods are destined for European consumers, and a large part of China’s oil imports.

At the entrance to the Red Sea, Yemen’s Houthis are targeting ships in retaliation for Israel’s assault on Gaza since the attacks of Oct. 7, 2023. Maritime traffic there has plummeted, with many ships preferring to bypass Africa. China quickly negotiated with the Houthis to secure safe passage for its ships. President Donald Trump, who had promised to use “overwhelming lethal force,” sent the U.S. Navy there, putting an end to the onslaught. But only for a while, because Yemen may be a mere speck on the economic map, but the rebels who control the capital, Sanaa, are taking advantage of the enormous power that its geographical location grants it.

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An ancient source of power

Blocking maritime passageways, or even gaining control of them, is nothing new. It was the key to victory for ancient Greek cities and medieval Italian cities, such as Venice. The Battle of Trafalgar, which marked French emperor Napoleon Bonaparte’s defeat in 1805 and British supremacy on the seas, took place off the coast of Gibraltar, a crucial entry point into the Mediterranean Sea, which at the time provided access to most of the world’s wealth.

“After World War II and with the development of international trade, the U.S. wanted more than ever to become a dominant naval power, in order to secure oil and gas flows, particularly from the Middle East,” says Thomas Gomart, the director of the French Institute of International Relations (IFRI). 

Since then, the United States, which has become a net exporter of oil and gas, has become less dependent on the fluidity of maritime passages. This is especially true since Trump hopes to repatriate the production of many goods to the United States by imposing exorbitant tariffs on its partners. But maritime routes remain a crucial issue.

Trump also intends to stimulate U.S. exports by demanding the removal of tariffs on goods shipped from the United States. 

Above all, he wants to extend American power everywhere, in all areas, on land and at sea. It is important to remember this obvious geographical fact: the United States, which benefits from two large ocean fronts, is a “true global power that imposes its global reach on others,” Gomart observes.

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Maritime power also depends on mastery of shipbuilding. While Japan and South Korea are very active on this front, Beijing takes the lead with a 72% market share. However, this dominance has been weakened by the trade war and export restrictions imposed by the United States.

Beyond material resources, China is challenging the international principle of freedom of navigation in strategic areas. 

With its “New Silk Roads,” it is expanding its commercial power while “imposing a virtual map that shows its desire to be strong,” Gomart says, noting that this program launched in 2013 by Chinese President Xi Jinping reached its peak in 2016, which seems to indicate “disillusionment with the initial project.”

Battle over the Panama Canal

Yet the Chinese strategy is already spreading across the globe, giving Beijing control over port infrastructure, which is essential for global logistics, in Africa, Latin America and Europe, including Athens, Hamburg and Valencia. The Chinese empire controls, at least in part, seven of the world’s top nine port infrastructures, with terminals in Singapore and Busan, South Korea. A global spider’s web with ramifications deemed threatening by Trump.

Upon his return to the White House in January, Trump announced his intention to regain control of the Panama Canal and quickly secured a deal for private asset manager BlackRock to buy out the Chinese company that manages the canal’s entry ports, Cristobal and Balboa. Yet the deal appears to be stalled, with Beijing refusing to relinquish control of a vital route for the United States. More than 70% of the goods that pass through Panama are destined for, or originate from, U.S. ports.

Trump is also interested in the Bering Strait, which made headlines last Friday when he met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska. This route along eastern Siberia is one of the gateways to the Arctic, where he wants to extend U.S. influence.

His interest in Greenland is part of this, not least because of the crucial metals found on the large Danish island. As the ice recedes, the strait separating Russia from Alaska becomes navigable in winter, greatly increasing its strategic value. Connecting Shanghai to Rotterdam via the Bering Strait would reduce the current route via Malacca and Suez (15,000 and 20,000 kilometers respectively) by a quarter. Similarly, the route between Seattle and Hamburg would be reduced by the same proportion compared to the route via Panama.

The rest of the world, with a few exceptions, is watching from the sidelines. Russia is active in the Arctic. In the United Arab Emirates, Dubai is now the world’s fifth largest commercial shipping hub. Europe may still be home to the largest shipping companies, Switzerland’s MSC, Denmark’s Maersk and France’s CMA CGM, as well as major insurers (Lloyds, Allianz, etc.), but it seems either paralyzed or indifferent to commercial and global issues. A belated awareness has emerged with the India-Middle East-Europe economic corridor (the IMEC project), an ambitious initiative to strengthen economic integration and trade between the three regions. But this counterweight to the Silk Roads is taking a long time to materialize.

“We are in the process of redefining the hierarchy of global capitalism, which involves control of maritime flows and naval issues. The European Union must be vigilant and not neglect tangible aspects such as control of port infrastructure,” Gomart warns. And while the separation between the navy and the merchant marine is still clear-cut today, “it will become less and less so,” he says.

Beijing is already blurring the lines. China has been investing heavily in economic and naval infrastructure in Djibouti for the past 10 years, while also establishing a military base there.

>Read the article on the Figaro website