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International Trade

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International trade has risen sharply in the era of globalization. The Covid-19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine and rising geopolitical tensions are leading to a reconfirguation of value chains.

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Publications
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Trump's Trade War: What Answers for the European Union?

Date de publication
14 May 2025
Accroche

The announcement, on April 2, 2025, of “reciprocal tariffs” by the United States has opened a sequence of profound break with decades of established trade policy practices, where the administration behaviour has been marked by dogmatic blindness, amateurism, and self-serving interests. 

Image principale

France, the U.S.' Oldest and Most Complicated Ally: A Stubborn Defender of a Truly European Industrial and Defence Policy

Date de publication
10 April 2025
Accroche

France, the U.S.’ oldest ally, is also the EU country which most stubbornly defends genuinely European industrial and defence policies. It calls for ‘strategic autonomy’ in all political domains, a position increasingly difficult to hold against a hardening international climate.

Image principale

European Startups and Generative AI: Overcoming Big Tech Dominance

Date de publication
07 April 2025
Accroche

Europe is at a crossroads. Faced with the domination of American Big Tech across the entire generative Artificial Intelligence (AI) value chain, from foundation models to cloud infrastructure, distribution channels, and open source, it risks long-term technological and economic decline. Yet generative AI also represents a major opportunity for economic transformation, with a potential value estimated at 1.5 times France’s gross domestic product (GDP). To turn it into a driver of renewal, Europe must move beyond the illusion of total technological independence and instead build an ecosystem that leverages Big Tech resources while strengthening its own innovation capabilities.

Image principale

Manufacturing Risk: Geopolitical Doxa and the Corporate World

Date de publication
02 April 2025
Accroche

The evolving power dynamics between the United States, China, and Russia are creating new geopolitical realities that businesses can no longer evade. Geopolitical risk has become unavoidable, yet many companies remain unprepared to navigate its complexities. Corporate leaders can no longer afford to overlook its implications.

Image principale

Trump’s Second Term: Laying the Groundwork for a New Trade War

Date de publication
07 February 2025
Accroche

In a statement released on February 1, 2025, President Trump announced the implementation of a 10% tariff on Chinese goods and a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico. While the former took effect via executive order on February 4, the latter were granted a 30-day reprieve. Sanctions targeting European Union (EU) products are said to be imminent.

Image principale

India’s Quest for Economic Emancipation from China

Date de publication
23 January 2025
Accroche

In October 2024, the meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi initiated a thaw in relations between the two Asian powers. Has India's high level of economic dependence on China played an important role in bringing about this diplomatic shift?

Image principale

How Geopolitical Tensions Reshape Trade Patterns: Geoeconomic Fragmentation, or China’s Big Manufacturing Push?

Date de publication
16 December 2024
Accroche

A data-based analysis shows that widespread geoeconomic fragmentation of world trade is not visible, at least so far. In contrast, the geopolitically-motivated challenges to international coordination are striking, notably in relation with China's surging surplus in manufactured goods trade.

Image principale

Multi-alignment and De-risking: The Global South Response to World Fragmentation

Date de publication
31 October 2024
Accroche

Turbulences and conflicts threaten the stability of the global order. What is the Global South’s response to these risks?

Hakim BEN HAMMOUDA
Image principale

Between „Strategic Autonomy” and „Zeitenwende”: The Importance of Trade Between The EU and Mercosur

Date de publication
11 September 2024
Accroche

This policy paper analyses the geopolitical and economic significance of the EU-Mercosur agreement for the European Union (EU) in the context of the EU’s new European Economic Security Strategy.

Simon Gerards IGLESIAS Marie KRPATA Ana Helena PALERMO KUSS
Image principale

Nigeria’s Oil Wealth and International Relations: Multilateral and Bilateral Lending and Decolonial Therapies

Date de publication
17 July 2024
Accroche

Before Angola surpassed Nigeria as Africa’s top oil producer in April 2023, Nigeria was Africa’s main oil exporter even before the country gained independence in 1960.

Fidelis ALLEN
Image principale

Trump's Trade War: What Answers for the European Union?

Date de publication
14 May 2025
Accroche

The announcement, on April 2, 2025, of “reciprocal tariffs” by the United States has opened a sequence of profound break with decades of established trade policy practices, where the administration behaviour has been marked by dogmatic blindness, amateurism, and self-serving interests. 

Image principale

France, the U.S.' Oldest and Most Complicated Ally: A Stubborn Defender of a Truly European Industrial and Defence Policy

Date de publication
10 April 2025
Accroche

France, the U.S.’ oldest ally, is also the EU country which most stubbornly defends genuinely European industrial and defence policies. It calls for ‘strategic autonomy’ in all political domains, a position increasingly difficult to hold against a hardening international climate.

Image principale

European Startups and Generative AI: Overcoming Big Tech Dominance

Date de publication
07 April 2025
Accroche

Europe is at a crossroads. Faced with the domination of American Big Tech across the entire generative Artificial Intelligence (AI) value chain, from foundation models to cloud infrastructure, distribution channels, and open source, it risks long-term technological and economic decline. Yet generative AI also represents a major opportunity for economic transformation, with a potential value estimated at 1.5 times France’s gross domestic product (GDP). To turn it into a driver of renewal, Europe must move beyond the illusion of total technological independence and instead build an ecosystem that leverages Big Tech resources while strengthening its own innovation capabilities.

Image principale

Manufacturing Risk: Geopolitical Doxa and the Corporate World

Date de publication
02 April 2025
Accroche

The evolving power dynamics between the United States, China, and Russia are creating new geopolitical realities that businesses can no longer evade. Geopolitical risk has become unavoidable, yet many companies remain unprepared to navigate its complexities. Corporate leaders can no longer afford to overlook its implications.

Image principale

Trump’s Second Term: Laying the Groundwork for a New Trade War

Date de publication
07 February 2025
Accroche

In a statement released on February 1, 2025, President Trump announced the implementation of a 10% tariff on Chinese goods and a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico. While the former took effect via executive order on February 4, the latter were granted a 30-day reprieve. Sanctions targeting European Union (EU) products are said to be imminent.

Image principale

India’s Quest for Economic Emancipation from China

Date de publication
23 January 2025
Accroche

In October 2024, the meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi initiated a thaw in relations between the two Asian powers. Has India's high level of economic dependence on China played an important role in bringing about this diplomatic shift?

Image principale

How Geopolitical Tensions Reshape Trade Patterns: Geoeconomic Fragmentation, or China’s Big Manufacturing Push?

Date de publication
16 December 2024
Accroche

A data-based analysis shows that widespread geoeconomic fragmentation of world trade is not visible, at least so far. In contrast, the geopolitically-motivated challenges to international coordination are striking, notably in relation with China's surging surplus in manufactured goods trade.

Image principale

Multi-alignment and De-risking: The Global South Response to World Fragmentation

Date de publication
31 October 2024
Accroche

Turbulences and conflicts threaten the stability of the global order. What is the Global South’s response to these risks?

Hakim BEN HAMMOUDA
Image principale

Between „Strategic Autonomy” and „Zeitenwende”: The Importance of Trade Between The EU and Mercosur

Date de publication
11 September 2024
Accroche

This policy paper analyses the geopolitical and economic significance of the EU-Mercosur agreement for the European Union (EU) in the context of the EU’s new European Economic Security Strategy.

Simon Gerards IGLESIAS Marie KRPATA Ana Helena PALERMO KUSS
Image principale

Nigeria’s Oil Wealth and International Relations: Multilateral and Bilateral Lending and Decolonial Therapies

Date de publication
17 July 2024
Accroche

Before Angola surpassed Nigeria as Africa’s top oil producer in April 2023, Nigeria was Africa’s main oil exporter even before the country gained independence in 1960.

Fidelis ALLEN

Support independent French research

Ifri, a foundation recognized as being of public utility, relies largely on private donors – companies and individuals – to guarantee its sustainability and intellectual independence. Through their funding, donors help maintain the Institute's position among the world's leading think tanks. By benefiting from an internationally recognized network and expertise, donors refine their understanding of geopolitical risk and its consequences on global politics and the economy. In 2026, Ifri partners with over 90 French and international companies and organizations.

Presentation of Ramses 2026, Ifri, Paris
Related centers and programs
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digital globe
Geoeconomics and Geofinance Initiative
Accroche centre

To analyze the impact of power rivalries and tensions on globalization, this initiative combines economic and political expertise. In the face of growing geopolitical risk, the goal is to decipher the dynamics of reconfiguration: protectionist pressures, sanctions, restrictions, industrial policies, and economic security concerns are redefining the rules of international trade. These tensions are also transforming international financial relations by undermining the foundations of trust and reshaping the global monetary system. They raise questions about the role of several key players: sovereign wealth funds, central banks, digital platforms, multilateral institutions, and financial infrastructure operators. In a context of profound disruption, simply refining existing approaches is no longer sufficient. The initiative is designed as a flexible model, drawing on diverse expertise to offer both broad overviews and targeted analyses. It also provides a platform for stakeholders and experts from various backgrounds to debate these issues freely.

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