Economy
The economy is an essential attribute of power and a major component of international relations. While geopolitical tensions are on the rise, economic interdependence remains strong.
Related Subjects
Japan seeks French backing as Macron begins Asia trip in Iran war’s shadow
Emmanuel Macron touched down in Tokyo on Tuesday with a packed agenda and a receptive audience in a Japanese government anxious about a choked oil route and looking for support amid its diplomatic falling-out with Beijing.
Can Interdependence Persist in Tense Times? Insights from the 2nd Paris Geoeconomic Dialogue
Ifri’s 2nd Paris Geoeconomic Dialogue brought together in November 2025 experts, academics, and decision-makers around six themes relating to the prospects for interdependence in an increasingly tense international environment.
Digital Revolution, Economic Upheaval
The digital revolution is profoundly shaking up the economy, with the impact felt well beyond the digital sector itself. Indeed, it is transforming the very concept of value creation. Artificial intelligence represents a new phase that requires a colossal investment in physical infrastructure like data centers. Europe failed to grasp the scale of these changes in time, but it does have certain advantages.
The Global Economy: Caught in the Storm / Politique étrangère, Vol. 91, No. 1, 2026
The global economy has become the primary arena for the clash of power ambitions in a world where understanding, coordination, and concerted multilateralism seem to have been permanently marginalized. In this fragmented landscape, how will American and Chinese strategies interact? Will the European Union manage to break out of its decades-old framework in order to face new competition? And will it be able, like others, to integrate the announced shift from a production economy to a digital, information economy? And what role will financial institutions, and central banks in particular, play in this transitioning international economy?
Official Development Assistance in the Age of Deglobalization
Official development assistance has collapsed since 2023, both in Europe and in the United States. This decline has affected both developing and industrialized countries. Under fire in the Global North and South, the goals and methods of development assistance must be redefined if it is to adapt to an international landscape in which the principal actors—the United States, the European Union, China, the Arab countries—are adopting new stances.
From Trump to Xi Jinping: Globalization's Great Rupture
The second Trump administration’s trade policy represents a rupture with the United States’ international commitments and a seismic shock for the multilateral trade system. Its destabilizing impact has been exacerbated by China’s disproportionate trade surplus, which has doubled since the 2020 pandemic. We are entering a new era marked by the erosion of norms and their replacement by a more transactional logic. For Europe, the challenge is enormous.
Central Banks: Challenges and Tools in Geopolitical Rivalries
Central banks have become major strategic players in international economic balances. Faced with systemic crises (2008, Covid-19), the major central banks have developed unprecedented coordination of their interventions, fostering the emergence of the “Jackson Hole consensus.”
European Union-India: Lasting Rapprochement or Partnership of Convenience?
The partnership between the European Union (EU) and India has long been limited to economic exchanges. Its political dimension has gradually developed, culminating in its elevation to the status of a “strategic partnership” in 2004. However, the failure of negotiations for a free-trade agreement in 2013 slowed this momentum. Since the early 2020s, in an uncertain geopolitical context, bilateral rapprochement has gained new momentum.
Replay - Conference with Chris Wright, Secretary, U.S. Department of Energy
Welcomed at the French Institute of International Relations (Ifri), Chris Wright outlined his vision of American energy policy built around two core axes: the human reality of energy access, and a data-driven approach. For the Secretary, energy is the foundation of prosperity, health, and longer life expectancy on a global scale. His doctrine rests on an ambition of American "energy dominance" — not merely independence, but the capacity to produce at scale in order to lower domestic costs, reindustrialize the country, and support U.S. allies.
Japan’s Takaichi Landslide: A New Face of Power
Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has turned her exceptional popularity into a historic political victory. The snap elections of February 8 delivered an overwhelming majority for the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), driven by strong support from young voters, drawn to her iconoclastic and dynamic image, and from conservative voters reassured by her vision of national assertiveness. This popularity lays the foundation for an ambitious strategy on both the domestic and international fronts.
Deathonomics: The Social, Political, and Economic Costs of War in Russia
The report attempts to outline and examine a truly new phenomenon in Russian society, dubbed “deathonomics”—the making of a mercenary army against the backdrop of the Kremlin’s war in Ukraine, eventually replacing both the Soviet (conscript) and early new Russian (contract) armies. It notes that, by the end of 2023, this trend had turned the military service into one of the highest-paying professions in the country, something not seen in Russia on such a scale since the late 17th century.
New Cold War? What New Cold War? Confronting the Geoeconomic Fragmentation Narrative with the Data
It has become widely accepted that the world economy should be seen as increasingly shaped by forces of fragmentation, resulting from geopolitical tensions. This article takes another look at this narrative, using international trade data. While an aggregate analysis is consistent with a new Cold War narrative, whereby international trade is increasingly seen as split into two blocs, this is only a mix of very different outcomes. Far from being a widespread trend, geoeconomic fragmentation of trade flows is only significant in “hotspots”: Russia's foreign trade and China-US bilateral exchanges, and the impact is massive in these cases. Outside these “hotspots”, there is no tangible sign that geopolitical tensions have been shaping international trade patterns in terms of blocs, nor is there any hint of a trend toward nearshoring – to the contrary, in fact.
Gulf Sovereign Wealth Funds: Major Actors in World Finance
The sovereign wealth funds of Gulf countries have become key players in world finance. By investing colossal sums in strategic sectors, they contribute both to local development and the growing influence of the Gulf monarchies in the global economy and international politics. In the near future, they will have to grapple with two challenges: that of human capital, and that of their geopolitical position between the Global North and Global South.
How to Jumpstart Economic Recovery in Syria? The role of syrian entrepreneurs in Turkey
This report examines the potential role of Syrian-partnered companies operating in Türkiye in supporting economic recovery and reconstruction efforts in Syria. Based on data collected through field research and surveys conducted by the Economic Policy Research Foundation of Türkiye (TEPAV), the report provides an overview of the business characteristics, sectoral distribution, and cross-border economic activities of Syrian entrepreneurs. The report explores how this business activity could contribute to restoring supply chains, stimulating local production, and generating employment.
Central Securities Depositories and Geopolitical Risks: Challenges for European Policy
Central Securities Depositories (CSDs) form the backbone of financial market infrastructure by registering securities, settling trades, distributing cash flows, and managing collateral. While often regarded as mere financial “plumbing,” they in fact underpin strategic objectives such as advancing the Savings and Investment Union, curbing tax evasion, and reinforcing Europe’s geopolitical stance.
Claiming "The People": Youth Booms, Ailing Authoritarians and "Populist" Politics in Kenya, Uganda, and Tanzania
This study analyses the emergence of so-called “populist” political tendencies in three East African countries: Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania. It builds its analysis on a wider discussion of the term “populism”, its use and applicability in (eastern) African settings before going on to examine the drivers of three cases of populism: William Ruto’s 2022 election victory in Kenya and the “Hustler Nation”; Bobi Wine’s opposition to Yoweri Museveni in Uganda; and John Magufuli highly personal style of government in Tanzania.
Kazakhstan After the Double Shock of 2022: Political, Economic and Military Consequences
The year 2022 represented a dual shock for Kazakhstan. In January, the country faced its most severe political crisis since independence, followed in February by Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, which cast uncertainty over the borders of post-Soviet states. These consecutive crises profoundly shaped Kazakhstan’s domestic and foreign policy.
Brazil One Year Away from the October 2026 General Elections
Brazil’s general elections will be held on October 4, 2026, to elect the president, vice-president, members of the National Congress, governors, deputy governors and state legislative assemblies. For the presidential and gubernatorial elections, a second round will be held on October 25 if no candidate obtains a majority of the votes in the first round.
EU’s Derisking From China: A Daunting Task
With economic security as a major concern, the EU has recently turned to “derisking” from China. The EU strategy entails reducing critical dependencies and vulnerabilities, including in EU supply chains, and diversifying where necessary, while recognizing the importance and need to maintain open channels of communication.
The Strategic Dimension of Skills in the Clean Industrial Deal
In the competitiveness and energy transition battles, the European Union (EU) must master a determinant factor: skills.
Governability, Inequality, and the Welfare State
Economic insecurity and inequality make the governance of political societies and the international order more complex. Reallocating spending from the social commitments of the welfare state to the military budget is thus inadvisable over the long term. Instead, the welfare state should be oriented toward protecting production capacity, especially at a time when the means of production are potentially going to be revolutionized by the emergence of new technologies such as artificial intelligence.
What Do Companies Fear? The New Geography of Geopolitical Risk
Geopolitical risk has established itself, within the space of a few years, as a central variable in corporate strategy.
China’s EV Rise and the Strategic Challenge for Japan’s Automotive Industry
China’s rapid expansion in electric vehicle production is reshaping global automotive competition for both European and Japanese automakers. Japan —a pioneer in hybrid vehicles— is struggling to translate this leadership into battery electric vehicles (BEVs), as Chinese manufacturers rapidly scale production and exports. At the same time, China’s dominance in battery manufacturing and critical mineral processing exposes upstream vulnerabilities for Japan’s automotive industry. Together, these developments create a dual challenge: intensifying downstream competition in electric vehicle (EV) markets and continued dependence on Chinese-controlled supply chains.
Entry into force of the EU-Mercosur agreement: last act of an endless drama for Germany?
At the World Economic Forum in Davos on January 20, 2026, Ursula von der Leyen, the President of the European Commission, stated that "geopolitical shocks can and must serve as opportunity for Europe".
Crisis in the Strait of Hormuz. A Stress Test for Taiwan with Global Implications
The large-scale military operation carried out by the United States (US) and Israel against Iran triggered an Iranian retaliation that resulted in the partial destruction of natural gas liquefaction infrastructure and severe disruption of maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. The economies of East Asia—South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan in particular—are highly exposed to this crisis due to their reliance on liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports for electricity generation.
Global imbalances, industrial policies, and the challenge of surging Chinese trade surpluses
The analysis of global imbalances faces a paradox: while the analytical focus has for decades been on the sustainability of current account deficits, out of concerns about their financial consequences, international political tensions stem mainly from enduring trade surpluses and their industrial impacts. Beyond President Trump’s outbursts, fears about the consequences of China’s trade surpluses are increasingly widespread.
Can Interdependence Persist in Tense Times? Insights from the 2nd Paris Geoeconomic Dialogue
Ifri’s 2nd Paris Geoeconomic Dialogue brought together in November 2025 experts, academics, and decision-makers around six themes relating to the prospects for interdependence in an increasingly tense international environment.
From Trump to Xi Jinping: Globalization's Great Rupture
The second Trump administration’s trade policy represents a rupture with the United States’ international commitments and a seismic shock for the multilateral trade system. Its destabilizing impact has been exacerbated by China’s disproportionate trade surplus, which has doubled since the 2020 pandemic. We are entering a new era marked by the erosion of norms and their replacement by a more transactional logic. For Europe, the challenge is enormous.
Digital Revolution, Economic Upheaval
The digital revolution is profoundly shaking up the economy, with the impact felt well beyond the digital sector itself. Indeed, it is transforming the very concept of value creation. Artificial intelligence represents a new phase that requires a colossal investment in physical infrastructure like data centers. Europe failed to grasp the scale of these changes in time, but it does have certain advantages.
The Global Economy: Caught in the Storm / Politique étrangère, Vol. 91, No. 1, 2026
The global economy has become the primary arena for the clash of power ambitions in a world where understanding, coordination, and concerted multilateralism seem to have been permanently marginalized. In this fragmented landscape, how will American and Chinese strategies interact? Will the European Union manage to break out of its decades-old framework in order to face new competition? And will it be able, like others, to integrate the announced shift from a production economy to a digital, information economy? And what role will financial institutions, and central banks in particular, play in this transitioning international economy?
Emmanuel Macron touts France as ‘reliable’ partner for south-east Asia
French President Emmanuel Macron has begun a six-day visit to Vietnam, Indonesia and Singapore in which he will tout France and Europe as trade and security partners of choice for a region buffeted by tensions between China and the US.
How Will the Trump Presidency Change EU-China Relations?
Over the past few years, European countries have started to line up with the United States on China policy. But now, as Donald Trump destroys the trust European countries had in America, China is stepping up, promising stability and consistency.
China-EU ties reach half century: 4 things to know
Will Trump 2.0 push the two combative sides to find common ground?
Trump-battered Europe eyes China with launch of diplomatic flurry to Beijing
EU officials and European national representatives are on overlapping visits but each will be asking for something slightly different
Will Europe Distance Itself From Taiwan?
To counter U.S. President Donald Trump’s hostility toward Europe, one idea being considered in Brussels is to lean into China’s latest charm offensive.
Europe Tempted by Closer Relations With China Following Trump’s Hostility, but Barriers to Cooperation Persist
While U.S. Vice President JD Vance left Europe reeling at the Munich Security Conference last month, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi (王毅) met with several European officials on the sidelines. At the U.N. Security Council a few days later, China pushed for greater European involvement in peace negotiations in the Russia-Ukraine war.
AI showcase pays off for France, but US tech scepticism endures
France is staking its claim as an AI powerhouse. At the AI Action Summit in Paris this week, global leaders, tech innovators, and policymakers converged to chart the future of artificial intelligence - backed by major investments and bold ambitions for Europe’s leadership in the field. RFI breaks down the key takeaways.
India's Modi heads to Paris as co-chair of AI summit
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is visiting France from Monday as co-chair of an international summit on artificial intelligence in Paris that is expected to be attended by industry leaders, including executives from OpenAI and DeepSeek.
Europe faces up to China's EV dominance as carbon-zero targets loom
As Xi travels through EU this week, automakers weigh whether to fight or team up with cheaper Chinese rivals.
Without a Pact with Mercosur, the EU risks leaving China free in South America
The agreement EU-Mercosur It has been a banner of the recent protest by French farmers, who denounced unfair competition on the part of South Americans. However, if Paris closes the door to this pact, the way will be left clear to China, warn politicians and analysts consulted by EFE.
Michala MARCUSSEN - Trump: One Year After The Election
Is the American economy doing well? Will the Tax Reform change this? How could the bond markets evolve in 2018?
Ifri, a foundation recognized as being of public utility, relies largely on private donors – companies and individuals – to guarantee its sustainability and intellectual independence. Through their funding, donors help maintain the Institute's position among the world's leading think tanks. By benefiting from an internationally recognized network and expertise, donors refine their understanding of geopolitical risk and its consequences on global politics and the economy. In 2026, Ifri partners with over 90 French and international companies and organizations.
To analyze the impact of power rivalries and tensions on globalization, this initiative combines economic and political expertise. In the face of growing geopolitical risk, the goal is to decipher the dynamics of reconfiguration: protectionist pressures, sanctions, restrictions, industrial policies, and economic security concerns are redefining the rules of international trade. These tensions are also transforming international financial relations by undermining the foundations of trust and reshaping the global monetary system. They raise questions about the role of several key players: sovereign wealth funds, central banks, digital platforms, multilateral institutions, and financial infrastructure operators. In a context of profound disruption, simply refining existing approaches is no longer sufficient. The initiative is designed as a flexible model, drawing on diverse expertise to offer both broad overviews and targeted analyses. It also provides a platform for stakeholders and experts from various backgrounds to debate these issues freely.