War and Armed conflict
The geography and modalities of wars and armed conflicts are evolving in step with the international system. While irregular wars and asymmetrical conflicts persist, high-intensity wars are multiplying, while crises are taking on new forms as a result of hybrid threats.
Related Subjects
Replay - Conference with Espen Barth Eide, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Norway
Since the invasion of Ukraine by Russia in 2022, Norway has become the European Union’s leading supplier of gas. This position could be further strengthened given the ongoing war in the Middle East.
Japan seeks French backing as Macron begins Asia trip in Iran war’s shadow
Emmanuel Macron touched down in Tokyo on Tuesday with a packed agenda and a receptive audience in a Japanese government anxious about a choked oil route and looking for support amid its diplomatic falling-out with Beijing.
Afghanistan-Pakistan: The Overlooked War at the Margins of the Middle East Conflict
Pakistan has historically maintained the closest ties to the Taliban movement and initially viewed its return to power in Afghanistan in the summer of 2021 with considerable optimism. The bilateral relationship has since deteriorated, and the two neighbors have been caught in a cycle of escalation since last fall. In October 2025, Pakistan launched its first airstrikes on Kabul. For three weeks in February–March 2026, Afghanistan intensified ground assaults on the Pakistani side of the border as well as drone attacks on Islamabad and Rawalpindi. Pakistan, for its part, has intensified airstrikes on Afghan border areas, as well as on Kabul and Kandahar. Given the dynamics at play at the bilateral and regional levels, the prospects for a sustained return to stability appear limited.
War in Mideast Tests Europe’s Military Might. The Verdict? Mixed.
To defend allies from Iran, the continent’s powers have mounted a rare show of force. But those efforts have diverted limited resources from other hot spots. Despite refusing to join the attacks on Iran, Europe’s leaders have responded to the widening war in the Middle East by sending warships, fighter jets and air-defense systems to protect bases and allies in the region.
France has a new nuclear doctrine of ‘forward deterrence’ for Europe. What does it mean?
On Monday, French President Emmanuel Macron delivered a speech on France’s nuclear deterrence at the Île Longue naval base near Brest in Brittany, which hosts the country’s nuclear-armed ballistic missile submarines. Such addresses are a well-established presidential ritual, typically delivered once per presidential term and receiving moderate attention. This one, however, was highly anticipated in France and abroad, given the profound geopolitical shifts since Macron’s first nuclear speech in February 2020.
Russia, the Palestinians and Gaza: Adjustments after October 7th
The Soviet Union (USSR), and subsequently the Russian Federation as its internationally recognized legal successor, has consistently sought to play a visible role in efforts to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Mind the Deterrence Gap: Assessing Europe’s Nuclear Options
Europe must urgently confront a new nuclear reality. In recent years, Russia’s nuclear-backed revisionism has reintroduced nuclear coercion and the threat of nuclear escalation to the continent, underscoring the importance of credible nuclear deterrence. At the same time, Europe’s traditional reliance on US extended nuclear deterrence appears politically more fragile than at any point since the Cold War. Together, these developments require Europeans to think about their nuclear options.
Multiple Launch Rocket Systems Europe’s Long-standing and Enduring Dependence?
The war in Ukraine has underlined the importance of multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS) in modern conflict, especially a war without clear air superiority and hence a reduced potential for air-launched deep strike. In 2022, the European MLRS fleet was split between a variety of Western platforms developed at the end of the Cold War and specialized in precision strikes.
Build and Maintain Air-Sea Superiority in a Contested Operational Environment – CNP 26
An exceptional opening roundtable at the 2026 Paris Naval Conference, bringing together the Chiefs of Naval Staff of the French, U.S., British, Italian and Dutch navies.
Canada’s Recognition of a Palestinian State: What Consequences on its Foreign Policy Toward Palestine?
On September 21, 2025, Canada became the 148th of 157 countries to recognize Palestine as a state. It did this with the United Kingdom (UK) and Australia, defying the United States (US) and Israeli opposition.
Replay - Navigating the Taiwan Strait Tensions: Perspectives from Japan, the Philippines, and France
Conference Replay - As tensions continue to rise in the Taiwan Strait and discussions grow about hybrid frictions potentially escalating into a kinetic conflict in the coming years, neighboring countries are bracing for impact. Japan and the Philippines would be on the front lines if a crisis were to erupt in the Taiwan Strait.
Europe-Russia: Balance of Power Review
European countries can no longer avoid the "Russian question," as Russia has chosen war. They have the necessary potential—that is, the economic means, military capabilities, and technological expertise—to face Russia by 2030, provided they demonstrate the political will to do so.
'Russia holds a decisive edge in terms of manpower, firepower and mobilization capacity'
Three researchers at the French Institute of International Relations, Dimitri Minic, Tatiana Kastouéva-Jean and Paul Maurice, are urging Europe to intensify its power dynamic with Moscow. The French Institute of International Relations (IFRI) published a report on Tuesday, November 4, that highlights Europe's vulnerabilities in the event of a high-intensity conflict with Russia.
Replay - Conference with Badr Abdelatty, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Egypt
Invited to Ifri on October 2, 2025, Egypt’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, Badr Abdelatty, highlighted Egypt’s doctrine of “strategic balance,” which is based on non-alignment and non-interference, while maintaining strong relations with major global powers such as the United States, Russia, and China.
"Iron Swords" A Military Analysis of Israel's War in Gaza
On October 7, 2023, Hamas' attack, dubbed “Al-Aqsa Flood,” caused a major shock and led Israel to launch the longest war in its history. Operation “Iron Swords” was notable for its unprecedented intensity, both in terms of the massive ground forces deployed and the firepower used.
European safety guarantees for Ukraine: The torch burns between Paris and Rome
Last week, France summoned the Italian ambassador in a dispute that reveals the differences between Europeans over the security guarantees they would be prepared to provide to Ukraine in the event of a peace agreement.
Indonesia and the Palestinian Cause
During his inaugural presidential speech on October 20, 2024, Indonesia’s incumbent president, Prabowo Subianto, iterated certain principles central to the philosophical foundation of the Indonesian nation. He noted Indonesia’s longstanding foreign policy of non-alignment or “bebas dan aktif” (free and active) and its aversion to military pacts.
Middle Power Lawfare : South Africa, International Justice, and the Gaza Crisis
The intensification of violence in Gaza following Hamas’s 7 October 2023 Al Aqsa Flood attack and Israel’s military response prompted a broader reassessment of global diplomacy. Longstanding geopolitical alignments were disrupted, and questions about humanitarian obligations, institutional accountability, and the limits of state conduct returned to the centre of international debate.
Putin Eyes Peacemaking Role In Israel-Iran Air War
Vladimir Putin is eyeing the conflict between Israel and Iran as an opportunity to thrust himself to the forefront of the international stage, more than three years into his invasion of Ukraine.
It’s difficult to assess the consequences of the strikes on the nuclear program itself and the facilities, as we are still waiting for independent analyses of the satellite imagery.
quoted in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists
The Crises Testing Arms Control
The arms control system built during and after the Cold War is under enormous stress and is fraying at the edges. It once enabled significant improvements in international security but is in danger of not withstanding the resurgence of tensions in recent years. Urgent action is now needed to prevent the proliferation of nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons, as well as cluster bombs and anti-personnel mines.
Overwhelmed: Germany’s Israel Policy after October 7th
Few countries have been as profoundly affected by the attacks of October 7th and the subsequent Gaza war as Germany. This is not merely a political controversy. It reflects a deeper structural problem: German-Israel policy has long rested on two guiding principles—a particular historical responsibility toward Israel derived from the Holocaust, and a firm commitment to universalist norms, above all international law and human rights.
Fury from the Skies. A Strategic Analysis of Air Campaign against Iran
What is the outcome of Operations Roaring Lion (RL) and Epic Fury (EF), launched by Israel and the United States against the Islamic Republic of Iran on February 28, 2026?
Escalation within Continuity: Spain’s Foreign Policy towards Israel and Palestine after October 7th
Over the past two years, Spain has emerged as one of the most vocal countries in supporting the Palestinian cause. While Madrid initially aligned with the prevailing European position, recognizing Israel’s right to self-defense after the 7 October attacks, it soon distinguished itself from most European Union (EU) Member States by questioning and later condemning Israel’s conduct of war in Gaza.
Australia’s Recognition of Palestine: A Case of Supporting the Status Quo over Accountability
Hamas’s terrorist attacks against Israel on October 7, 2023, killed over a thousand Israelis, altering irrevocably the way the Palestinian/Israeli conflict is viewed internationally. Australia’s government professed profound shock and disgust at Hamas’s attacks, together with its unwavering diplomatic and political support for Israel. But as Israel’s response became more concerned with exacting revenge and as the pretext to fulfill long-held ideological dreams of a Greater Israel, support from Australia became more muted and conditional. This culminated in Australia joining Britain, France, and Canada in formally recognizing a Palestinian state at the United Nations General Assembly meeting in September 2025.
Sudan Wartime Online Propaganda
In the Sudan conflict, the propaganda battle between the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) on mainstream and social media makes it hard to distinguish real, false, and manipulated information. Furthermore, the lack of field press coverage allows fake and misleading news to spread more easily. Although the SAF and RSF work hard to shape the war narrative by building large supporter networks and using various methods such as disinformation and censorship, it is clear they no longer fully control the flow of information. Social media analysis shows that Sudanese politicians, military figures, influencers, and followers weave a tangled web of exchanges filled with rivalries, lies, and propaganda.
Afghanistan-Pakistan: The Overlooked War at the Margins of the Middle East Conflict
Pakistan has historically maintained the closest ties to the Taliban movement and initially viewed its return to power in Afghanistan in the summer of 2021 with considerable optimism. The bilateral relationship has since deteriorated, and the two neighbors have been caught in a cycle of escalation since last fall. In October 2025, Pakistan launched its first airstrikes on Kabul. For three weeks in February–March 2026, Afghanistan intensified ground assaults on the Pakistani side of the border as well as drone attacks on Islamabad and Rawalpindi. Pakistan, for its part, has intensified airstrikes on Afghan border areas, as well as on Kabul and Kandahar. Given the dynamics at play at the bilateral and regional levels, the prospects for a sustained return to stability appear limited.
Taking the Pulse: Is France’s New Nuclear Doctrine Ambitious Enough?
French President Emmanuel Macron has unveiled his country’s new nuclear doctrine. Are the changes he has made enough to reassure France’s European partners in the current geopolitical context?
Macron Offers a Promising Vision for Nuclear Deterrence in Europe
Macron’s concept of ‘forward deterrence’ offers a distinctly European approach to nuclear deterrence.
France has a new nuclear doctrine of ‘forward deterrence’ for Europe. What does it mean?
On Monday, French President Emmanuel Macron delivered a speech on France’s nuclear deterrence at the Île Longue naval base near Brest in Brittany, which hosts the country’s nuclear-armed ballistic missile submarines. Such addresses are a well-established presidential ritual, typically delivered once per presidential term and receiving moderate attention. This one, however, was highly anticipated in France and abroad, given the profound geopolitical shifts since Macron’s first nuclear speech in February 2020.
European safety guarantees for Ukraine: The torch burns between Paris and Rome
Last week, France summoned the Italian ambassador in a dispute that reveals the differences between Europeans over the security guarantees they would be prepared to provide to Ukraine in the event of a peace agreement.
Putin Eyes Peacemaking Role In Israel-Iran Air War
Vladimir Putin is eyeing the conflict between Israel and Iran as an opportunity to thrust himself to the forefront of the international stage, more than three years into his invasion of Ukraine.
Taking the Pulse: Should the EU Suspend its Association Agreement With Israel?
Israeli leaders are clearly stating their intention to forcibly displace Gazans out of the Strip, a policy which amounts to ethnic cleansing. To uphold its commitment to human rights, should the EU suspend its association agreement with Israel?
In Putin's wartime Russia, military corruption is suddenly taboo
To be sure government spending reaches the battlefield in Ukraine, President Vladimir Putin is suddenly putting high priority on purging Defense Ministry officials accused of corruption. Russia's war in Ukraine has turned out to be a powerful anti-corruption initiative — at least at the Ministry of Defense.
Europe Yearns to Be an Indo-Pacific Player
There is a war on at home, but Europe’s strategic and naval aspirations are on the far side of the world. After years in search of a geopolitical identity, Europe is aiming to become a much bigger player in one of the most contentious spaces in international relations: maritime security, including in Asia.
Pétrole : l’attaque du Hamas contre Israël nourrit des craintes autour de l’Iran
Les Etats-Unis, alliés traditionnels d’Israël, pourraient être amenés à encadrer plus strictement l’application des sanctions contre Téhéran, pays qui représentait 4 % de l’offre mondiale de brut en 2022. Voire à les durcir s’il est avéré que l’Iran a aidé à planifier les actes terroristes du Hamas.
Dimitri Minic: 'The Kremlin's credibility has been shaken'
For this Russian army specialist, at least part of the armed forces rallying behind the founder of the Wagner group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, cannot be ruled out.
Dimitri Minic: 'The Russian army is influenced by beliefs that detaches it from objective reality'
According to the researcher, the failure of the Russian army in Ukraine is the result of the implementation of a theory that emerged in the 2000s, which places a central focus on 'psychological-informational' warfare rather than armed combat.
Xi's Moscow Visit Risks Further Emboldening Putin: Analysts
There is no sign the visit of Chinese President Xi Jinping to Moscow will rein in President Vladimir Putin in his war in Ukraine, even if it again highlights a lopsided relationship where Russia is clearly the junior partner, analysts say.
US Navy, French Navy And Royal Navy See Eye To Eye On Interoperability
The heads of the three leading NATO navies, the Chief of Naval Operations (CNO), Admiral Mike Gilday, First Sea Lord, Admiral Ben Key, and the Chief of Staff of the French Navy, Admiral Pierre Vandier, met last week in France for the first ever "Paris Naval Conference".
Ifri, a foundation recognized as being of public utility, relies largely on private donors – companies and individuals – to guarantee its sustainability and intellectual independence. Through their funding, donors help maintain the Institute's position among the world's leading think tanks. By benefiting from an internationally recognized network and expertise, donors refine their understanding of geopolitical risk and its consequences on global politics and the economy. In 2026, Ifri partners with over 90 French and international companies and organizations.
