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War and Armed conflict

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The geography and modalities of wars and armed conflicts are evolving in step with the international system. While irregular wars and asymmetrical conflicts persist, high-intensity wars are multiplying, while crises are taking on new forms as a result of hybrid threats.

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Europe Yearns to Be an Indo-Pacific Player

20 March 2024
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There is a war on at home, but Europe’s strategic and naval aspirations are on the far side of the world. After years in search of a geopolitical identity, Europe is aiming to become a much bigger player in one of the most contentious spaces in international relations: maritime security, including in Asia.

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South Korea’s Emergence as a Defense Industrial Powerhouse

Date de publication
09 February 2024
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In recent years, South Korea’s ascent in the global arms market has been remarkable. This surge, particularly amid a shifting geopolitical landscape and the ongoing Ukraine-Russia War, has captured the attention of security watchers worldwide.

Wooyeal PAIK
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War in Ukraine: How Does the Russian Economy Stand?

Date de publication
05 December 2023
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The Russian economy is weathering the war and Western sanctions: it has maintained its exports, its business sector has shown marked dynamism, and the population is managing in part thanks to state spending.

Vladislav INOZEMTSEV
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The Next Surge of Conflict in the South Caucasus Is Still Preventable

Date de publication
17 October 2023
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The tragic exodus of the Armenian population from the Nagorno Karabakh region has closed a chapter in the long saga of conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

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Pétrole : l’attaque du Hamas contre Israël nourrit des craintes autour de l’Iran

11 October 2023
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Les Etats-Unis, alliés traditionnels d’Israël, pourraient être amenés à encadrer plus strictement l’application des sanctions contre Téhéran, pays qui représentait 4 % de l’offre mondiale de brut en 2022. Voire à les durcir s’il est avéré que l’Iran a aidé à planifier les actes terroristes du Hamas.

Zeitenwende: The Bundeswehr’s Paradigm Shift

Date de publication
29 September 2023
Accroche

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, marked a turning point in German defense policy. After thirty years of military downsizing, the Bundeswehr found itself at an extremely low capability level just as a high-intensity war involving a great power was breaking out on Europe’s doorstep for the first time since 1945. Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s response was to embrace this “turning point” (Zeitenwende) by launching a major program to reequip Germany’s armed forces.

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RAMSES 2024. A World to Be Remade

Date de publication
06 September 2023
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For its 42nd edition, RAMSES 2024 identifies three major challenges for 2024. 

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Fiscal Policy in France and Germany: Insurmountable Differences?

Date de publication
05 September 2023
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The state of public finances in France and Germany is often compared. Germany is considered a model of rigor, through its ability to contain its deficits and generate surpluses, particularly between 2012 and 2019, thanks to the introduction into its constitution of a debt brake mechanism. 

Andreas EISL
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Dimitri Minic: 'The Kremlin's credibility has been shaken'

24 June 2023
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For this Russian army specialist, at least part of the armed forces rallying behind the founder of the Wagner group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, cannot be ruled out.

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Dimitri Minic: 'The Russian army is influenced by beliefs that detaches it from objective reality'

08 June 2023
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According to the researcher, the failure of the Russian army in Ukraine is the result of the implementation of a theory that emerged in the 2000s, which places a central focus on 'psychological-informational' warfare rather than armed combat.

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In Helsinki, Putin Can Grant Trump Great Success, of Sorts

Date de publication
03 July 2018
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The July 16, 2018, face-to-face between President Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin is both entirely natural and extremely unconventional, very encouraging and deeply disturbing.

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La guerre nucléaire limitée : un renouveau stratégique américain

Date de publication
21 November 2017
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Over the past few years, a debate on possible scenarios of limited nuclear weapons use has surfaced again in the United States. Russian nuclear saber-rattling since 2014 and the growing tensions in the Korean peninsula have led Washington to reassess its own ability to deter, or respond to, such a limited use of nuclear weapons.

Beyond national styles. Towards a connected history of Cold War counterinsurgency

Date de publication
05 January 2017
Accroche

This book is a major new study of the extent to which national mentalities, or 'ways of war', are responsible for 'national styles' of insurgency and counterinsurgency

The Taboo of the Armenian Genocide, Part One: Global Reaction and American Inaction

Date de publication
04 July 2016
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In the Syrian refugee crisis enveloping Europe, Turkey has become the bottleneck toward which migrants are flowing into Europe, a factor increasingly important for Germany in particular. Relations have been strained, however, due to disputes over the possibility of lifting visa requirements.

Turkey: the Sèvres Syndrome, or the Endless War

Date de publication
23 April 2015
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For Turks, the Treaty of Sèvres symbolises the dissolution of the empire and the carving up of Turkey by foreign powers. 

Deterring the Weak: Problems and Prospects

Date de publication
08 October 2012
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Strong states often fail to deter vastly weaker competitors. This paper explores some reasons of this failure and identifies factors that can increase the prospects that deterrence will succeed in these situations.

James J. WIRTZ

The Obama Administration and Syria: From "off the table" to on

Date de publication
06 June 2012
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A quick look at the news dealing with the Syrian uprising the last year shows a slow progression from protests and civil resistance towards violence. The Obama Administration’s policy dealing with what many have called “slow motion revolution” has evolved in fits and starts, with mixed episodes of confusion, assertiveness, denial and drift.

Andrew TABLER

Dancing with the Bear: Managing Escalation in a Conflict with Russia

Date de publication
08 March 2012
Accroche

"Escalation", the tendency of belligerents to increase the force or breadth of their attacks to gain advantage or avoid defeat, is not a new phenomenon. Systematic thought about how to manage it, however, did not crystallize until the Cold War and the invention of nuclear weapons. 

Forrest E. MORGAN

Moldova: A Status Quo of EU Institutional Relations

Date de publication
09 April 2010
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The barbed wire at the Prut River, on the Republic of Moldova’s (Moldova) border with Romania and, thus, with Europe will be removed by March 2010. This way, the last soviet “wall” will be torn. Maybe this symbolic action will open the door to the European Union (EU).

Florentina HARBO
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Russia, France look for way out of geopolitical deadlock

24 May 2018
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On Thursday, Russian President Vladimir Putin and his French counterpart Emmanuel Macron are due to hold a meeting in St. Petersburg.

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Macron Heads to Russia in European Effort to Salvage Iran Deal

22 May 2018
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French President Emmanuel Macron’s trip to Russia this week once threatened to split France from its European allies. Now it’s part of a wider European effort to tie President Vladimir Putin to the Iran nuclear accord.

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As fighting rages, can Russia forge a peace in Syria?

16 March 2018
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Nearly two and a half years after the Russian military began an intensive bombing campaign in Syria in support of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, Russia is struggling to engineer a political solution in the war-ravaged country, analysts say.

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Missiles of March: A political means of last resort for Putin

07 March 2018
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President Vladimir Putin’s extra-heavy emphasis on new strategic missile systems in his March 1 address to parliament was quite unexpected and rather out of character. 

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'Turkey Is Using Syria to Show its Strength - it's All About Image'

14 December 2016
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Turkey is looking to revive a fragile ceasefire in Aleppo, and the planned evacuation of civilians, which brokered with Russia. But why is Ankara, a staunch opponent of Damascus, interested in helping to create an outcome that would benefit President Assad? Amanda Morrow put the question to Dorothée Schmid, head of the Turkish studies programme at the French Institute of International Relations. 

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Ifri, a foundation recognized as being of public utility, relies largely on private donors – companies and individuals – to guarantee its sustainability and intellectual independence. Through their funding, donors help maintain the Institute's position among the world's leading think tanks. By benefiting from an internationally recognized network and expertise, donors refine their understanding of geopolitical risk and its consequences on global politics and the economy. In 2024, Ifri will support more than 70 French and foreign companies and organizations.

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