Germany in the Shadow of the United States, Russia, and China – Systemic Paradigm Shifts
Since reunification, Germany has built its prosperity on an international order based on free trade, multilateralism, and geopolitical stability. This model relied on three relationships considered complementary: U.S. military protection, Russian energy supplies, and economic integration with China. For several decades, Berlin viewed these interdependencies as factors contributing to peace, growth, and security.
However, this environment has changed profoundly. The return of Donald Trump to the White House, Russian aggression against Ukraine, and the rise of Chinese economic power have highlighted Germany’s strategic vulnerabilities. The United States is undermining the foundations of the transatlantic partnership, weakening multilateral institutions, and using its military and economic superiority as a tool for exerting pressure. Russia has definitively shattered the illusion of a peaceful rapprochement based on energy interdependence. As for China, it has become at once a powerful industrial competitor, an indispensable trading partner, and, increasingly, a source of troubling technological and strategic dependencies.
Hans Stark is Professor of Contemporary German Civilization at the Sorbonne Université. From March 1991 to March 2020, he was Secretary General of the Study Committee for Franco-German Relations (Cerfa) at Ifri. Since March 2020, he has been advisor for Franco-German relations at the Ifri, where his work focuses on German foreign and European policy.
- This publication is available in French only: « L’Allemagne face au triangle Etats-Unis, Russie, Chine – des changements de paradigme systémiques » (PDF).
Available in:
Themes and regions
Share
Hans STARK
Advisor, Study Committee on French-German Relations (Cerfa), Ifri
The Study Committee on Franco-German Relations (Cerfa)
The Study Committee on Franco-German Relations (Cerfa) was created in 1954 by an inter-governmental agreement between the Federal Republic of Germany and France, in order to raise awareness of Germany in France and analyze Franco-German relations, including in their European and international dimensions. In its conferences and seminars, which bring together experts, political leaders, senior decision-makers and representatives of civil society from both countries, Cerfa develops the Franco-German debate and stimulates political proposals. It regularly publishes studies through two collections: Cerfa notes and studies as well as Franco-German visions.
Cerfa maintains close relations with the network of German foundations and think tanks. In addition to its research and debate activities, Cerfa promotes the emergence of a new Franco-German generation through original cooperation programs. This is how in 2021-2022, Cerfa led a program on multilateralism with the Konrad Adenauer Foundation in Paris. This program is aimed at young professionals from both countries interested in the issues of multilateralism in the context of their activities. It covered a wide range of themes relating to multilateralism, such as international trade, health, human rights and migration, non-proliferation and disarmament. Previously, Cerfa had participated in the Franco-German future dialogue, co-led with the DGAP from 2007 to 2020, and supported by the Robert Bosch Foundation and the Daniel Vernet group (formerly the Franco-German Reflection Group) which was founded in 2014 upon the initiative of the Genshagen Foundation.
Franco-German Relations Through the Lens of Donald Trump’s Second Term: Between Strategic Realignments, European Sovereignty, and the Enduring Transatlantic Bond
Donald Trump’s return to the presidency of the United States in 2025 acts as a powerful catalyst for the Franco-German relationship. Faced with growing uncertainty over the reliability of US security guarantees, Germany, more directly affected by the questioning of the transatlantic relationship, is gradually moving closer to the French position in favor of strengthening European strategic sovereignty.
MAGA and AfD: Toward a Transatlantic Alliance of Nationalist Right-Wing Parties
The rapprochement between Donald Trump’s MAGA movement and Germany’s AfD has accelerated significantly since Trump’s return to the White House.
VW, Mercedes, and BMW in the Face of Donald Trump—A Tightrope Walk Between Investing in the U.S., Maintaining Operations in Europe, and Catching Up in Electric Mobility
The German automotive industry faces a threefold challenge: competition from China; a difficult transition to electric vehicles; and US tariffs.
A Partnership Built on Security: Post-Brexit Rapprochement between Germany and the United Kingdom
Since the UK’s withdrawal from the EU, UK-German relations have undergone a remarkable transformation: from Berlin’s deliberate distancing from London during the Brexit negotiations, when Germany consistently prioritised EU-27 unity over bilateral arrangements, to a gradual rapprochement, culminating, for the time being, in the 2025 Kensington Treaty of Friendship.