Replay - Europe in turbulence: navigating a new world order without the United States?
A webinar organized by the Austro-French Centre for Rapprochement in Europe (ÖFZ) and the French Institute of International Relations (Ifri), on June 25, 2025. The foundations of the post-1945 international order, long anchored by U.S. leadership, are shifting. Amid intensifying geopolitical rivalry, democratic backsliding, and strategic fatigue in Washington, the question arises: what if the United States no longer plays its pivotal role in international security? Simultaneously, the Global South is asserting new political and economic agency, complicating the old binaries of West vs. Rest. For Europe, this landscape is both a challenge and an inflection point.
Trump's Indo-Pacific Vision & Japan's Strategic Autonomy
Satoru Mori, Senior Fellow at the Nakasone Peace Institute, explores key insights into President Trump's likely priorities for the Indo-Pacific region. His primary concerns include addressing economic trade imbalances with countries like China, Japan, and South Korea. Additionally, he aims to deter regional conflicts, particularly over Taiwan, and wishes to advance the denuclearization of North Korea.
The 'Macron Doctrine' goes to Asia: Autonomy with partners, steady on China
The French president calls for a 'third way' in the Indo-Pacific
European Startups and Generative AI: Overcoming Big Tech Dominance
Europe is at a crossroads. Faced with the domination of American Big Tech across the entire generative Artificial Intelligence (AI) value chain, from foundation models to cloud infrastructure, distribution channels, and open source, it risks long-term technological and economic decline. Yet generative AI also represents a major opportunity for economic transformation, with a potential value estimated at 1.5 times France’s gross domestic product (GDP). To turn it into a driver of renewal, Europe must move beyond the illusion of total technological independence and instead build an ecosystem that leverages Big Tech resources while strengthening its own innovation capabilities.
How Will the Trump Presidency Change EU-China Relations?
Over the past few years, European countries have started to line up with the United States on China policy. But now, as Donald Trump destroys the trust European countries had in America, China is stepping up, promising stability and consistency.
A "DeepSeek Moment"?
DeepSeek, hailed as a champion of Chinese AI, represents less a revolution than a significant optimization of existing technologies. Doubts remain regarding the figures put forward by the start-up, inviting a more measured response to the media hype surrounding China’s technological catch-up. Nonetheless, DeepSeek signals the need to question an economic model based solely on the race for computational power. By betting on open innovation, Europe can carve out its own path in a competition that is far from being a zero-sum game.
Trump's Trade War: What Answers for the European Union?
The announcement, on April 2, 2025, of “reciprocal tariffs” by the United States has opened a sequence of profound break with decades of established trade policy practices, where the administration behaviour has been marked by dogmatic blindness, amateurism, and self-serving interests.
France, the U.S.' Oldest and Most Complicated Ally: A Stubborn Defender of a Truly European Industrial and Defence Policy
France, the U.S.’ oldest ally, is also the EU country which most stubbornly defends genuinely European industrial and defence policies. It calls for ‘strategic autonomy’ in all political domains, a position increasingly difficult to hold against a hardening international climate.
A Fragile Consensus? The Pressure on the Norm Against Nuclear Testing
Apart from North Korea, no state has conducted explosive nuclear tests in the 21st century, reflecting the emergence of a strong international norm against such testing.
Donald Trump v. the States: the Case of New York
While the disruptive policies of the second Trump administration are being implemented at the federal level and on the international stage, they are also being felt in the federal states and major cities across the country. In the spring of 2025, several cases involving the state and city of New York demonstrate that the president’s attacks on environmental protection, the separation of powers, freedom of speech, etc., are also being carried out at the local level.
Trump's Trade War: What Answers for the European Union?
The announcement, on April 2, 2025, of “reciprocal tariffs” by the United States has opened a sequence of profound break with decades of established trade policy practices, where the administration behaviour has been marked by dogmatic blindness, amateurism, and self-serving interests.
France, the U.S.' Oldest and Most Complicated Ally: A Stubborn Defender of a Truly European Industrial and Defence Policy
France, the U.S.’ oldest ally, is also the EU country which most stubbornly defends genuinely European industrial and defence policies. It calls for ‘strategic autonomy’ in all political domains, a position increasingly difficult to hold against a hardening international climate.
A Fragile Consensus? The Pressure on the Norm Against Nuclear Testing
Apart from North Korea, no state has conducted explosive nuclear tests in the 21st century, reflecting the emergence of a strong international norm against such testing.
Donald Trump v. the States: the Case of New York
While the disruptive policies of the second Trump administration are being implemented at the federal level and on the international stage, they are also being felt in the federal states and major cities across the country. In the spring of 2025, several cases involving the state and city of New York demonstrate that the president’s attacks on environmental protection, the separation of powers, freedom of speech, etc., are also being carried out at the local level.
How the US under Trump Became a Strategic and Ideological Adversary of Europe
The Europeans' worst security nightmare seems to be coming true: on Tuesday, February 18, 2025, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov met in Saudi Arabia to initiate the normalization of relations between their two countries. The meeting also aimed to set up peace negotiations for Ukraine. However, despite having the potential to affect the entire continent, the discussions took place without the Europeans or the Ukrainians being present.
Will Trumpian Authoritarianism Lead to a Constitutional Crisis?
Since his return to the White House on January 20, 2025, President Donald Trump has signed around sixty executive orders to implement his political agenda. Numerous other measures have also been introduced by the White House and the new Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) as part of these orders.
Trump’s Second Term: Laying the Groundwork for a New Trade War
In a statement released on February 1, 2025, President Trump announced the implementation of a 10% tariff on Chinese goods and a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico. While the former took effect via executive order on February 4, the latter were granted a 30-day reprieve. Sanctions targeting European Union (EU) products are said to be imminent.
From Conservative Nationalists to Tech-Libertarians: Far-Right Ideologies in the Trump 2 Administration
The officials and advisers of the Trump 2 administration represent diverse ideological currents, some of which are relatively new to Washington.
Migrations Between Mexico and the United States: More of the Same or a Headlong Rush?
As Trump prepares to tighten border controls with Mexico and carry out mass deportations of undocumented immigrants, Mexico is questioning the economic consequences of this migration policy and expects to have to negotiate the issue in connection with the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration.
RAMSES 2025. Between Powers and Powerlessness
Never before have there been so many powers able to upset the international balance of power, and never before have the dominant powers seemed so powerless to counter the fragmentation of the world.
America's Defense Pact with Australia and the U.K. Has Humiliated France's Macron. But It Might Also Help Him
For years, French President Emmanuel Macron butted heads, bit his tongue in frustration, and lashed out at former President Donald Trump, who refused to yield an inch to his entreaties about global cooperation. Trump pulled the U.S. out of the Iran nuclear deal and the Paris Agreement on climate change—cherished projects for Macron—and trashed the NATO military alliance as “obsolete.”
Exclusive: Western Intelligence Fears New Russian Sat-Nav’s Espionage Capabilities
GLONASS, Moscow’s answer to GPS, is set to launch an upgraded satellite network later this year, which it hopes to sell to the U.S. and Europe. Buyer beware.
World’s Rich Nations Jostle to Lead Globalization Clubhouse
The race to fill a role at the heart of world economic policy making is turning into a new battleground for the future of globalization.
Letter from Europe: Disorder, Injustice and our Current Crisis
Looking back on the last few weeks, a famous quote by Goethe (from his report on the siege of Mainz in 1793) came to mind: “Better to commit an injustice than to countenance disorder.” In other words, disorder engenders more injustice than it eradicates.
U.S. Allies Look on in Dismay While U.S. Rivals Rejoice
Trump’s failure to convene a G-7 meeting is only the latest blow to America’s crumbling prestige in the face of nationwide unrest. When German Chancellor Angela Merkel last week declined an invitation to join U.S. President Donald Trump in Washington for a star-crossed meeting of the G-7, and then British Prime Minister Boris Johnson rebuffed Trump’s plans to bring Russia back into the group, it underscored how profoundly U.S. allies and partners have soured on American leadership amid a mishandled pandemic and a violent crackdown on protesters.
Macron takes a risk in courting Trump, but has little to show for it
PARIS — President Emmanuel Macron was put on the spot this year in front of a room full of journalists when one asked, provocatively: Which man is more dangerous, North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong-un; or Donald J. Trump?
Reaction to U.S. Election Results
Europe needs better relations between Moscow and Washington. President-Elect Donald Trump spoke on the campaign trail of mending U.S. relations with Russia.
US LNG Exports will be Game-Changer: Ifri Report
“US LNG exports will revolutionise international trade in LNG” according to a recently published report from French think-tank, Institut Francais des Relations Internationales (Ifri).
Thanks to their price indexation to the US Henry Hub price, absence of destination clauses, and the projected volumes that will become available, US LNG exports will facilitate greater flexibility on world markets and more price convergence, the report says.
A facist America?
Are the United States at risk of giving into a totalitarian drift embodied by Donald Trump?
The United States: the decline of the right to vote
More and more states are requiring voters to present an approved form of identification, a formality that primarily affects ethnic minorities.
The 2020 Campaign and the Impeachment Process. Conference video
The Democratic Party primary campaign is in full swing and the Impeachment inquiry against Donald Trump proceeds speedily. What is the state of American public opinion less than a year before the elections? How are conservative and progressive media lining up to cover the event?
U.S. Foreign Policy in the Age of Trump
Despite a very particular style, the Trump administration's foreign policy continues on many points the American withdrawal from World affairs which had started under Barack Obama. The main trends of thought of American foreign policy show this evolution, with the resurgence of non-interventionist and even nationalist ideas amongs DC think-tankers.
How will Middle America vote in 2020? (Henry Olsen)
An interview with Henry Olsen, Senior Fellow, Ethics and Public Policy Center (EPPC).
How will Middle America vote in 2020? (Lara Putnam)
An interview with Lara Putnam, Professor and Chair, History Department, University of Pittsburgh.
The roots of anti-environmentalism in the U.S.
An interview with Peter Jacques, Professor of Political Science, University of Central Florida.
Michala MARCUSSEN - Trump: One Year After The Election
Is the American economy doing well? Will the Tax Reform change this? How could the bond markets evolve in 2018?
Jeffrey GOLDBERG - Trump: One Year After The Election
3 questions to Jeffrey GOLDBERG, Editor in Chief, The Atlantic
Karlyn BOWMAN - Trump: One Year After The Election
3 questions to Karlyn BOWMAN, Senior Fellow, American Entreprise Institute
Jeremy SHAPIRO - Trump: One Year After The Election
Has Trump changed his views of transatlantic relations? What should Europeans do? Is Trump's Russia policy dictated by the Russia probe?
Where is the U.S. nuclear arsenal headed?
An interview with Jon WOLFSTHAL, nonresident scholar, Nuclear Policy Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Siloviki: What Influence on Russia's Domestic and Foreign Policy?
3 questions to Mark GALEOTTI, Senior Researcher at the Institute of International Relations Prague, Director of Mayak Intelligence consultancy.
What evolution of US-Russia relationship after Trump’s election? An American point of view
3 questions to Stephen SZABO, Executive Director, Transatlantic Academy.
What evolution of US-Russia relationship after Trump’s election? A Russian point of view
3 questions to Andrey KORTUNOV, Director General of the Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC).
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