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Preparing for 2050: From “Foresight” to “Grand Strategy”

Date de publication
10 December 2021
Accroche

China and the United States both have a “grand strategy”: Beijing aspires to be the world’s leading power in 2049, while Washington plans to remain primus inter pares.

Martin BRIENS Thomas GOMART
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The Direction of France’s Foreign Policy over the Next Thirty Years

Date de publication
10 December 2021
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A foreign policy points to a united society that manages its relationships with its surroundings while defending its own interests. 

European Defense: Acting in Time

Date de publication
10 December 2021
Accroche

This seems like a fitting moment to strengthen European cooperation on defense. 

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European Economic Governance: Past Errors and Future Promises

Date de publication
14 December 2021
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The eurozone crisis marked a real failure of European Union (EU) policy, which led to mediocre economic performance and the erosion of its political legitimacy among the populations of member states.

Vivien SCHMIDT
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Strengthening Sovereignty in the Era of Global Value Chains

Date de publication
14 December 2021
Accroche

How to reduce the vulnerabilities induced by these global value chains to be more independent, while taking into account the reality of these productive processes which precisely generate interdependencies?

Paul HERAULT

Foreign Policy: France at a Turning Point?

Date de publication
10 December 2021
Accroche

An exceptional issue of Politique étrangère

Confronted with a world in which the fundamentals are being redefined, France’s foreign policy is under scrutiny. In which geographies should France assert its presence? To which major challenges should France be responding in order to survive in tomorrow’s world? What kind of relationship to that world should France be establishing, as thirty years of Western intervention have ended in catastrophic failure in Afghanistan?

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What foreign policy for Germany after the end of the Merkel era?

Date de publication
10 December 2021
Accroche

One cannot help but wonder about Germany’s future foreign policy when one considers both the weight of the Federal Republic and the many crises we face internationally.

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Macron-Scholz meeting - Insights from Éric-André Martin on BBC World

10 December 2021
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The first meeting between French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz occurred on Friday, December 10, 2021, in Paris. An important visit for both Germany and France and an opportunity to relaunch the Franco-German couple since Angela Merkel’s departure from the German chancellery.

Franco-German Civil Society: Object and Actor of Bilateral Relations. Balance and Perspectives after the Signing of the Treaty of Aachen

Date de publication
08 December 2021
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The treaty signed by France and Germany in Aachen on January 22, 2019 highlights the role of civil society in bilateral cooperation and aims to contribute to "bringing societies [and citizens in both countries] closer together".

Corine DEFRANCE Tanja HERRMANN
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France welcomes Germany’s new ‘pro-European’ coalition agreement

29 November 2021
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Euractiv
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The coalition deal struck between three parties that will form Germany’s next government is very much in line with France’s own ambitions and priorities, including its vision of a more federal EU.

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Video replay - Space and Quantum Technologies: What Strategies and Industrial Models for Europe? 

20 November 2021
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Watch the video replay of the conference organized by Ifri's Geopolitics of Technology program on November 18, 2021. 

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The Energy Price Crises: A Reality Check for Europe’s Green Deal

Date de publication
10 November 2021
Accroche

On its path to carbon neutrality, the European Union (EU) will be exposed to growing energy price volatility and vulnerable to Russian and Chinese pressure on supply and demand.

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Philanthropy and Migration in Europe: What Role for Foundations?

Date de publication
29 October 2021
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The 2015 “crisis” accelerated and/or intensified the involvement of foundations (in particular those from the private sector) in the field of migration. The crisis not only created a sense of urgency, but also generated a movement of public empathy that foundations were willing to accompany and amplify. It was also seen as a challenge to Europe and its humanist values, which foundations sought to defend in accordance with their own beliefs in inclusive societies.

Emeric ROGIER
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Building European Strategic Autonomy vs. Turkish Strategic Depth: Macron's Diplomatic Gamble

Date de publication
22 October 2021
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Since coming into office in 2017, Emmanuel Macron has been the loudest advocate for the development of European ‘strategic autonomy’, which aims at reinforcing the European Union’s geo-strategic independence. Asserting the EU’s role on the international stage, starting with its immediate neighborhood, directly clashes with Recep Tayyip Erdogan's long-term expansion strategy in several key areas. 

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A Strategy for Solving Europe’s Imported Deforestation Problem

Date de publication
19 October 2021
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The European Union (EU) is the world’s main trader in agricultural products, with imports totaling €142 billion in 2020. These imported agricultural products include commodities – palm oil, beef, cocoa, coffee, soy, etc. – that are responsible for deforestation in producing countries and thus create an “imported deforestation” problem for Europe.

Alain KARSENTY Nicolas PICARD
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Strategic Calculation: High-Performance Computing and Quantum Computing in Europe’s Quest for Technological Power

Date de publication
06 October 2021
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Computing power plays a key role in enabling machine learning, for scientific research, and in the military domain. Therefore, the race for computing power has become a key element of the US-China technological competition, and it is also a strategic priority for Europe.

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Climate and International Trade: The Clash of Powers

Date de publication
07 September 2021
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The fight against climate change has a major economic dimension. With climate neutrality as their new objective, the major powers are counting on green industrial policy, and trying to contain the emissions related to their imports. 

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Is Europe a “Digital Colony” of the United States?

Date de publication
07 September 2021
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Edward Snowden’s revelations, the Cambridge Analytica affair and the digital transformation accelerated by the Covid-19 crisis have all shown Europe's technological dependence on foreign powers. 

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Which way for Germany’s foreign policy after the 2021 elections?

21 September 2021
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HSS Podcast
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After 16 years of Angela Merkel, Germany’s federal election will not only pave the way for a new government but also for a brand-new foreign policy. At least potentially.

Europe/United States: 50 Shades of Dependence

Date de publication
07 September 2021
Accroche

Is Joe Biden’s United States (US) returning to multilateral, traditional diplomacy? This more open stance does not eliminate either its domestic problems or the divergence in interests separating the US from the Europeans: how will open diplomacy fit in with the priority of defending US interests? Will Washington organize a broad anti-Chinese coalition that the Europeans are opposed to? Will sanctions with their resulting effects remain at the heart of US strategy? Will the Europeans be able to assert their sovereignty in the key area of new technologies against the US giants?

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COVID-19 Reveals Europe’s Strategic Loneliness

Date de publication
24 November 2020
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The COVID-19 crisis has not only revealed a world that has moved into an age of interdependence and competition, it has also laid bare Europe’s strategic loneliness and vulnerability.

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French public opinion on China in the age of COVID-19: Political distrust trumps economic opportunities

Date de publication
24 November 2020
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This report is a result of a wide-scale study of public opinion on China in 13 European countries,1 conducted in September and October 2020, on the research sample representative with respect to gender, age, level of education, country region, and settlement density. Here, we focus on the French portion of the polling, building on the previously published report comparing the results across the 13 countries.

Marc JULIENNE Richard Q. TURCSANYI Matej SIMALCIK Kristína KIRONSKA Renáta SEDLAKOVA
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European public opinion on China in the age of COVID-19: Differences and common ground across the continent

Date de publication
16 November 2020
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In September and October 2020, the Sinophone Borderlands project at Palacký University Olomouc conducted a wide-scale survey of public opinion on China in 13 European countries. The polled countries include: Czechia, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Latvia, Poland, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Spain, Sweden, and the United Kingdom. Here, we present the basic findings of the survey, which are a result of a joint analysis of the survey data by the Central European Institute of Asian Studies (CEIAS) and Sinophone Borderlands.

The Karlsruhe Court Judgment: A Thunderclap from a Clear Sky?

Date de publication
20 October 2020
Accroche

In its judgment of 5 May 2020, the German Federal Constitutional Court in Karlsruhe questioned the conditions under which the European Central Bank (ECB) had adopted a Public Sector Purchase Programme (PSPP), thus contradicting the position taken by the Court of Justice of the European Union in the same case.

David CAPITANT
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The American Elections and Beyond

Date de publication
12 October 2020
Accroche

The next few years will be tumultuous ones in the United States. The dependency of foreign policy on domestic policy is unlikely to diminish. Whether in the rivalry with China or the predominance of Israeli interests in Middle East policy, for example, it is hard to imagine Biden taking a big step backward. Many Europeans want to believe that a victory by Obama’s former vice president will signal a return to the good old days of transatlantic consultation and multilateralism.

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Technology Strategies in China and the United States, and the Challenges for European Companies

Date de publication
15 October 2020
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As international relations are increasingly reorganized around the US-China rivalry, the tensions between these two great powers are shaping a growing number of sectors, and the exchange of sensitive technologies in particular. This is a critical issue for European companies today. 

Laurence NARDON Sofia BOURNOU Jean-François BUREAU Pierre GIRARD André LOESEKRUG-PIETRI Éric-André MARTIN John SEAMAN Mathilde VELLIET Marion WELLES
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The Renovation Wave: A Make or Break for the European Green Deal

Date de publication
12 October 2020
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European buildings are old and too often inefficient, past policies have not delivered and the amount of investment into energy efficiency must be scaled up dramatically to meet the 2030 targets and ultimately, the carbon neutrality objective.

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Thirty Years after its Reunification, Germany's “European Moment”?

Date de publication
01 October 2020
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On October 3, 1990, after forty years of division, Germany once again became one state. Less than a year after the fall of the Berlin Wall, on November 9, 1989, the territories of the German Democratic Republic (GDR) became part of the Federal Republic of Germany (FRG) under Article 23 of its Basic Law.

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Europe beyond COVID-19

Date de publication
03 September 2020
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The recovery plan agreed upon by European Union leaders in July 2020 is unprecedented: for the first time, it creates a common debt that will help revive the economies impacted by the pandemic.

Clément BEAUNE
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RAMSES 2021. At the Edge?

Date de publication
02 September 2020
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RAMSES 2021. At the Edge?, written by Ifri's research team and external experts, offers an in-depth and up-to-date analysis of geopolitics in today’s world.

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COVID-19: Down with Globalization, Long Live Europe?

Date de publication
07 September 2020
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Beyond national healthcare systems, COVID-19 questions major global balances, as well as the modes of cooperation underpinning them.

Bavaria and France. Preparing the Future together

Date de publication
31 August 2020
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France and Bavaria have a longstanding close and solid partnership. However, the relationship between France and Bavaria is not only marked by a common history and by the structures created over the decades.

Florian HERRMANN

The European Equation of Nuclear Deterrence, Variables and Possible Solutions

Date de publication
06 July 2020
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Ever since nuclear weapons were developed by the United States and the Union of Socialist Soviet Republics, Europe has lived under the nuclear shadow. A major direct confrontation between “the West” and “the East” could have very likely resulted in the detonation of nuclear weapons on the continent. As the Cold War ended, massive reductions in the US and Soviet arsenals (from 70,300 in 1986 to 13,890 in 2019) and a new security architecture radically transformed the European security environment.

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Captain in the Storm: Challenges and Opportunities for the German EU Council Presidency

Date de publication
29 June 2020
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The German Presidency of the Council of the European Union begins on July 1, 2020 at a time of acute crisis. It is facing unprecedented challenges and organizational constraints in a context marked by high expectations from its European partners.

Claire DEMESMAY, Director of Institut français de Bonn

Easing the Lockdown: Some of the Issues

Date de publication
29 April 2020
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After my first editorial a month ago (it seems like forever!), I am back with some concise remarks.

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Covid-19 in Europe-China Relations: A country-level analysis

Date de publication
29 April 2020
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Analysis from 19 countries reveals the complexities of Europe’s relations with China amid the Covid-19 crisis.

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Perspectives on a Hydrogen Strategy for the European Union

Date de publication
24 April 2020
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There is now a wide understanding that larger use of clean hydrogen in future can be an important mean to achieve decarbonisation of the European economy.

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Complementarity or Competition? Franco-British Cooperation and the European Horizon of French Defense Policy

Date de publication
23 April 2021
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What does future hold for the Franco-British defense partnership after Brexit?

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Accelerating the Energy Transition: The Role of Green Finance and its Challenges for Europe

Date de publication
15 April 2020
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Green finance has been a burgeoning sector since the Paris Agreement and is at the crossroads of financial, socio-economic and environmental challenges. It is hybrid in nature: it uses financial instruments and focuses on environmental issues, while coming under the wider field of so-called “sustainable” finance that assumes a broader approach with the inclusion of socio-economic and governance challenges. It is a catalyst as it facilitates and accelerates the transition to a low-carbon economy. It also includes an increasing range of instruments. From green bonds to green indices, green loans and capital raising activities, the sector is growing both quantitatively and qualitatively. So-called “green” issuance debt alone increased fivefold in nearly three years to reach US $ 257 billion in 2019, emphasizing its on-going innovation and attractiveness.

Green finance embraces the various objectives of public and private actors. It also raises major questions about the future of our societies: choosing to finance only sectors that are already “green” entails significant socio-economic risks, such as job losses in high-emitting (brown) sectors and stranded assets. Adopting a sequenced approach potentially amounts to locking in polluting activities in the long term and not achieving the Paris Climate Agreement’s objectives (lock-in effect).

In view of the physical risks of climate change (devastation and disasters) and those related to energy transition (stranded assets), climate change is now generally considered as a systematic risk. Public and private actors– institutional investors, banks, regulators, central banks, insurers, credit rating agencies, states, multilateral organizations – are taking action both to better understand the risks posed by climate change, and to capitalize on opportunities in this growing field. Green finance provides the financial sector with instruments to effectively reorient capital towards the low-carbon transition. Against a background of uncertainty about the effects of climate change,[1] green finance also reduces the information asymmetry about risks related to major ecosystem disruptions. The structuring and distribution of “green” products are important growth drivers for many stakeholders and in a wide variety of sectors.

However, many risks and challenges remain: financial risks, specifically related to high levels of subsidies for the production and use of fossil fuels, and the lack of a single carbon price; structural risks, which hamper the economic attractiveness of sustainable activities, particularly in terms of profitability; and unclear political signals, notably resulting in regulatory uncertainty. Furthermore, the language of green finance remains fragmented and is still relatively vague: there are many reporting frameworks and taxonomies, preventing easy and uniform ownership by stakeholders. Standardized methodologies, requirements and disclosures are critically needed. A common language is required, not only among Europeans but worldwide, to ensure that financing the ecological transition is genuinely effective.

The quality and comparability of non-financial reporting must be significantly improved to ensure its effectiveness. The principle of double materiality of information – financial and non-financial – is crucial. Green finance provides the entire financial system with instruments to accomplish its transition. It also avoids both a “niche” and a lax approach that are conducive to greenwashing and damaging to the sector growth, and, ultimately, to the transitional objective of green finance. As a source of systemic risk, and in view of the challenges of financing the transition, the aim is to ensure that the concept of sustainable finance remains purposeful by integrating environmental, social and governance (ESG) “filters” into the overall operation of capital markets.

There are many risks of intentional or unintentional greenwashing for market actors: making wrong investment choices, because they are ill-informed about the real nature of sustainability; seeing their reputation discredited in their clients and fund managers’ eyes; undermining trust and the fundamentals of green finance.

The European Union (EU) has taken the lead on these issues. The European Commission’s (EC) Action Plan on Financing Sustainable Growth of March 2018 aims to reorient capital flows towards a more sustainable economy, integrate sustainability into financial institutions’ risk management and promote transparency and long-term awareness within financial institutions. This Action Plan includes numerous instruments, such as an Ecolabel for financial products, the development of a European standard for green bonds, a so-called “Disclosure” regulation legislating on non-financial reporting by market actors, and the clarification of banking and investment advisors’ duties in terms of integrating ESG factors and incorporating sustainability into prudential requirements for banks and insurers. One of the main instruments is the European “taxonomy” for sustainable economic activities, which is intended to establish a common language for greening the financial sector by covering a wide range of actors and activities, at least on a voluntary basis. This future taxonomy has major global potential that could boost the EU’s normative power. Consequently, these challenges are now the focus of the G20 and its Financial Stability Board (FSB), and that of the United Nations.

The EU’s sustainable finance strategy is over the long term, striving to take as comprehensive a view as possible of financial regulation and climate change, and therefore fully redirect capital flows towards financing the transition. The next few months will be critical for the future of the sector, with work continuing on the European taxonomy, the preparation of delegated acts subsequent to the final recommendations prepared by the EU’s Technical Expert Group on Sustainable Finance (TEG), and the implementation of the European Green Deal.

 

[1]. “Scientific Uncertainty”, Nature Climate Change, Vol. 9, No. 797, October 29, 2019, available at: www.nature.com; M. L. Weitzman, “Fat-Tailed Uncertainty in the Economics of Catastrophic Climate Change”, Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Vol. 5, No. 2, 2011, pp. 275-292, available at: https://doi.org.

Pauline DESCHRYVER Charlotte GARDES Théo MARET Clémence PELEGRIN
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Muslim Women and Power: Political and Civic Engagement in West European Societies

Date de publication
01 November 2017
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This book explores Muslim women’s political and civic engagement in Britain and France.

Daniele JOLY Khursheed WADIA
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Ifri, a foundation recognized as being of public utility, relies largely on private donors – companies and individuals – to guarantee its sustainability and intellectual independence. Through their funding, donors help maintain the Institute's position among the world's leading think tanks. By benefiting from an internationally recognized network and expertise, donors refine their understanding of geopolitical risk and its consequences on global politics and the economy. In 2026, Ifri partners with over 90 French and international companies and organizations.

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