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Domino Theory

Will Europe Distance Itself From Taiwan?

13 March 2025
Nom du journal, revue ou émission
Domino Theory
Accroche

To counter U.S. President Donald Trump’s hostility toward Europe, one idea being considered in Brussels is to lean into China’s latest charm offensive.

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domino_theory

Europe Tempted by Closer Relations With China Following Trump’s Hostility, but Barriers to Cooperation Persist

11 March 2025
Nom du journal, revue ou émission
Domino Theory
Accroche

While U.S. Vice President JD Vance left Europe reeling at the Munich Security Conference last month, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi (王毅) met with several European officials on the sidelines. At the U.N. Security Council a few days later, China pushed for greater European involvement in peace negotiations in the Russia-Ukraine war.

The China-led AIIB, a geopolitical tool?

Date de publication
14 March 2025
Accroche

The establishment of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) in 2016, on a Chinese initiative, constituted an attempt to bridge the gap in infrastructure financing in Asia. However, it was also perceived in the West as a potential vehicle for China’s geostrategic agendas, fueling the suspicion that the institution might compete rather than align with existing multilateral development banks (MDBs) and impose its own standards.

(Replay) US-China-Taiwan Relations: What to expect in the Trump II Era?

11 March 2025
Nom du journal, revue ou émission
Ifri
Accroche

Replay of Ifri's Center for Asian Studies' conference "US-China-Taiwan Relations: What to expect in the Trump II era?", held at Ifri on Tuesday 11 March 2025.

The China-Russia Partnership and the Ukraine War: Aligned but not allied

Date de publication
20 February 2025
Accroche

China and Russia maintain a strategic partnership rooted in shared opposition to the U.S. and liberal democracies, but their relationship is shaped more by pragmatism than trust.

Technical Standards, Soft Connectivity and China’s Belt and Road: Towards greater convergence or fragmentation?

Date de publication
14 February 2025
Accroche

As the intensification of geopolitical competition points toward increased global fragmentation, the definition of technical standards for future markets and industries will play an important role in determining just how deep the fissures will run. 

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India’s Quest for Economic Emancipation from China

Date de publication
23 January 2025
Accroche

In October 2024, the meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi initiated a thaw in relations between the two Asian powers. Has India's high level of economic dependence on China played an important role in bringing about this diplomatic shift?

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The Indo-Pacific and Trump II. In Uncle Sam’s brutal embrace

Date de publication
20 January 2025
Accroche

In this collective analysis, the research team of the Center for Asian Studies presents a synthetic and non-exhaustive assessment of the relations taking shape between the United States under the Trump II administration and some of the main players in the Indo-Pacific.

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AI and Technical Standardization in China and the EU: Diverging priorities and the need for common ground

Date de publication
31 October 2024
Accroche

Given the highly disruptive potential of AI, global cooperation on AI safety and governance is imperative, and yet the deeply transformational potential of AI also ensures that a high level of competition and systemic rivalry is likely unavoidable. How can the EU best manage its complex relationship with China in the field of AI so as to ensure a necessary level of cooperation in spite of competition and rivalry?

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AI and Technical Standardization in China and the EU: Diverging priorities and the need for common ground

Date de publication
31 October 2024
Accroche

Given the highly disruptive potential of AI, global cooperation on AI safety and governance is imperative, and yet the deeply transformational potential of AI also ensures that a high level of competition and systemic rivalry is likely unavoidable. How can the EU best manage its complex relationship with China in the field of AI so as to ensure a necessary level of cooperation in spite of competition and rivalry?

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China’s Quest for a Quantum Leap

Date de publication
22 October 2024
Accroche

The global race to harness quantum science is intensifying. Recognizing the strategic potential of quantum technology for economic, military, and scientific advancement, China is focusing on quantum breakthroughs as a way to shift the balance of power, especially in its competition with the United States. President Xi Jinping has emphasized the importance of scientific innovation, particularly in quantum fields, to fuel national development and ensure security.

China, technical standardization, and the future of globalization

Date de publication
01 February 2024
Accroche

As the global economy sits at a crossroad between connectivity-driven globalization and strategic decoupling, technical standardization provides a valuable measure of where we are headed.

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Japan: Deciphering Prime Minister Ishiba’s Strategic Vision. Toward an Asian version of NATO?

Date de publication
10 October 2024
Accroche

On Tuesday, October 1, Shigeru Ishiba was sworn in as Prime Minister of Japan. His proposal to revise the security alliance with the United States and create an Asian version of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) attracted attention and sparked lively debate.

Critical Raw Materials, Economic Statecraft and Europe's Dependence on China

Date de publication
01 October 2024
Accroche

As China tightens export controls on critical minerals, it is important to put Beijing's policies in perspective and analyse how Europe can respond.  

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China’s Mature Node Overcapacity: Unfounded Fears

Date de publication
07 October 2024
Accroche

China is decoupling from, not flooding, the global mature-node semiconductor market. As China increasingly pursues industrial policies encouraging domestic chip production, its own growing chip demand will prevent a direct flood of cheap Chinese chips on foreign shores. However, as Beijing achieves its goal of decreasing the reliance of domestic downstream manufacturers on foreign chips, European and American mature-node semiconductor companies will feel the ripple effects of an increasingly “involuted” Chinese chip ecosystem.

Arrian EBRAHIMI

Getting China Onboard a Global Debt Governance System

Date de publication
06 September 2024
Accroche

China has become the number one provider of development finance in the world. Because of its significant share in Low and Middle Income Countries’ (LMICs) external debt, China should take up responsibilities and cooperate with traditional development finance providers, but its particular lending style and distinct approach to debt management pose many challenges and do not make international cooperation straightforward.

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Between „Strategic Autonomy” and „Zeitenwende”: The Importance of Trade Between The EU and Mercosur

Date de publication
11 September 2024
Accroche

This policy paper analyses the geopolitical and economic significance of the EU-Mercosur agreement for the European Union (EU) in the context of the EU’s new European Economic Security Strategy.

Simon Gerards IGLESIAS Marie KRPATA Ana Helena PALERMO KUSS
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Deployment of the French Frigate Bretagne in the Indo-Pacific: Implementing French Strategy in the Region

Date de publication
02 September 2024
Accroche

The deployment of the French Navy’s multi-mission frigate (FREMM) Bretagne in the Indo-Pacific in recent months demonstrates France’s capability to project power far from the mainland and solidifies its Indo-Pacific strategy.

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National Perspectives on Europe's De-risking from China

Date de publication
28 June 2024
Accroche

The concept of “de-risking” has become a significant focus for the European Union (EU) in managing its relations with China since first proposed by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in March 2023. However, the interpretation and policy responses to de-risking vary across Europe, reflecting diverse national perspectives.

John SEAMAN Patrik ANDERSSON Frida LINDBERG
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Macron accused of rolling out red carpet for ‘dictator’ Xi

06 May 2024
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French president criticised over ‘obsequious’ welcome for Chinese leader who is ‘supporting Putin’s war in Ukraine’
 
 
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Xi Jinping's trip to Europe to center on trade as challenges 'pile up'

03 May 2024
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Chinese President Xi Jinping is set to embark on his first European diplomatic tour in five years, starting in France before traveling on to Serbia and Hungary.

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EU turns up the heat on China as Xi Jinping readies for 3-nation tour, with fiery Paris talks on the cards

03 May 2024
Accroche
  • European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen to meet Chinese President Xi and his French counterpart Emmanuel Macron in Paris to discuss China ties

  • Xi’s trip comes amid barrage of EU trade and competition tools mostly targeting Chinese firms, including dramatic raids in the Netherlands and Poland

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Presidents Emmanuel Macron and Xi Jinping are meeting in Paris on Monday at a time of fragile relations between Europe and China.

03 May 2024
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Chinese President Xi Jinping is set to embark on his first European diplomatic tour in five years, starting in France before traveling on to Serbia and Hungary.

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China adds new moon base project partners, but struggles to attract national-level participation

28 March 2024
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China continues to add new members to its International Lunar Research Station initiative, but many of these are subnational, suggesting issues attracting partners.

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As China’s Pacific influence grows, Japan eyes deeper ties with island nations amid their domestic woes

26 February 2024
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Japan has supported the region by setting up hospitals, building roads and bridges, and assisting in climate change mitigation and disaster relief. Tokyo’s renewed focus on Pacific nations comes amid regional concern over Fukushima waste water discharge and as Chinese influence grows.

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Italy's BRI withdrawal shines light on ties ahead of EU-China summit

07 December 2023
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PM Meloni makes move after calculating that membership failed to yield benefits.Italy's decision to pull out of China's Belt and Road Initiative has placed a spotlight on the relationship between the two countries and comes at an awkward time for Beijing, a day ahead of a summit it is holding with Europe.

 
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Italy's Belt and Road blues highlight hopes for rival India-Europe corridor

02 November 2023
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Ship-to-shore cranes tower high above choppy waters and colorful containers on the Ligurian coast of northern Italy. Sailors coming in to dock are greeted with a smorgasbord of transportation industry names and logos, from Denmark's Maersk to Taiwan's Evergreen. Harder to spot is COSCO, the jewel of China's maritime business, which owns a 40% stake in the cutting-edge Vado Port System at Vado Ligure.

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Japan PM Kishida’s Africa tour lays groundwork for G7 summit, as China and Russia concerns loom large

11 May 2023
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While the impact of Kishida’s tour is ‘marginal, it can still send ‘a message of solidarity’ that it intends to take the continent’s concerns seriously. Getting the African countries to take active measures against Russia will be difficult if they are not offered strong incentives in exchange, one analyst notes.

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Macron's Taiwan comments expose muddled China policy

27 April 2023
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French President Emmanuel Macron's call for Europe to steer clear of a Taiwan conflict -- rooted in France's pride and deep-seated resistance to following America's lead -- has raised questions about where he and Paris really stand on China.

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